***************UPDATE*******************
Crazy week at Churchill. Not sure if its the track, the water, or what... As of now, probably hear that Forte has scratched.
My quants re-ran the numbers and they are updated below. Predicted finish - higher number = higher prob of them winning. *editors note post race- these guys are cluless and wont be included in 2024 analysis
Crazy week at Churchill. Not sure if its the track, the water, or what... As of now, probably hear that Forte has scratched.
My quants re-ran the numbers and they are updated below. Predicted finish - higher number = higher prob of them winning. *editors note post race- these guys are cluless and wont be included in 2024 analysis
We like w Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire but they are now going off around 4-1...
Kings Barn, Reincarnate, and Cyclone Myschief are were we are seeing odds....
I'd suggest exotics.
Have fun kids.
Kings Barn, Reincarnate, and Cyclone Myschief are were we are seeing odds....
I'd suggest exotics.
Have fun kids.
Official song of the Murph Derby Write Up
Its Forte’s race and Forte’s race alone. Its not a deep field. I am not seeing any rain in the forecast. The pace is set up for him.
You know MurphDerby doesn’t bet the favorite unless its Justify or American Pharaoh. Do we have another 3X Crowner this year? Does MurphDerby have the juice now that Baffert is a noun? Derby day will tell. Grab your juleps and lets go….
If you didn’t click the link for the OFFICIAL SONG – you’re going to miss the jokes.
Pace –
Our long time readers know that Murph Derby is all about that pace.
This year.... think the pace is fairly simple – it comes from middle inside – they squash the rail – it opens up the outside middle- for a pony or two to get a good trip and shock the world… or hit the board.
************************************************
“A horse walks around the paddock
He says, "Why am I soft in the middle, now?
Why am I soft in the middle?
The rest of my life is so hard
I need a photo-opportunity…..”
***************************************************
MurphDerby is going to play the field collapsing on the middle inside and opening up an opportunity on the outside middle. Any horse that isn't soft in the middle, will bang for position, and be on pace around the 2nd turn is a horse that can win...
CARTOON GRAVE YARD, BONEDIGGER, BONEDIGGER – dead to begin with.
1)Hit show: 30-1 - Thats what they called Jakes Autobody when we played FOE. This isn't Jakes Autobody.
2)Verifying: 15-1 Gonna have a worst trip than DeHart circa '98.
3)Two Phil’s: 12-1 - This horse is as dead as Arlington Park
9) Skinner: 20-1 – Fun Principal, bad horse. last horse in field, Rich Strike – don’t mention him
10) Practical Move: 10-1 - scratched - brilliant move by me to put him here. Bet if you want, but zero chance it makes the start gate.
11) Disarm: 30-1 – NRA won’t let this horse win. I said too much already.
12) Jace’s Road: May be Jace's Road but this aint his track. Might hear from him early.
13) Sun Thunder: 50-1 – He is the Sire of Zeus… Never mind misread that. No chance. (best joke on this sheet - A+ if you get it)
14) Confidence Game: 20-1 Contender for worst name in the field. Hasn't raced since
Pretenders
7)Reincarmate: 50-1 – Monster race in the the rebel, and then laid a dud last time out. Can never rule johnny v out. Ill take the 50-1 odds to the ticket window.
6) Kingsbarns: 12-1 – Pletcher / Ortiz; Name makes me think he's the A-hole in the paddock. But he won Louisiana derby in a front running style and with no real early speed horses if the first leg :23 and its over 1:12 around the second turn he could have a shot.
8) Mage 15-1 – Mage - a magician or learned person. A little unknown fact about a MurphDerby- he wants to become nasty at a magic trick or two. Follow's Tannen's on insta but too scared to push it forward. Mage was second to forte in Florida derby and his previous race. Can he get better in his 4th start? Does he have a rabbit in his hoof?
16)Raise Cain: 50-1 – This is a Wendy's sir. Who shows up? Gotham or bluegrass
17) Derma Sotogake: 10-1 Sotogake is a sumo wrestling maneuver in which the attacker hooks an opponent's lead leg and forces him backwards. In this sport we are going forward. Maybe he should be in the graveyard.
18) Rocket Can: 30-1 Say his name without singing Rocket Man - you can't. Cant be done!!!
21) Cyclone Mischief: 30-1 - I love mischief. Live for it. But he's going to have show massive improvement from his last outing.
Looking for that photo opportunity
"He is surrounded by the sound, the sound
Cattle in the marketplace
Scatterings and orphanages
He looks around, around
He sees angels in the architecture
Spinning in infinity
He says, "Amen and Hallelujah!""
The sound around the 4th turn is ALWAYS TALKED ABOUT. Who has the heart. Who sees the angles. Who will be sinnging hallelujah passing the finish line??
5) Tapit Trice: 5-1 - Ill Tapit all night long. 4 wins in a row. Tapit is his old man. Saez is here to redeem himself from the Maximum Security debacle.
14) Angel of Empire: 8-1 - Name of champion. Name of a God. He's a big time playa in the derby. Big outing in Arkansas Derby. Hes the f'n grrrr - can run in traffic, off the pace, he will be locked and loaded
15) Forte: 3-1 He's the belle of the ball. The big Kahona. Jakes Autobody. He's a winner. Won the Breeders Cub Juvenile (super bowl for all 2 year olds), 5 straight wins, Irad on him, and it goes on and on.
And the winnnnnnnerrrrr is.....
I'm going chalk...
Win - Forte
Place - Tapit Trice
Show - Ange of Empire / Reincarmate
Its Forte’s race and Forte’s race alone. Its not a deep field. I am not seeing any rain in the forecast. The pace is set up for him.
You know MurphDerby doesn’t bet the favorite unless its Justify or American Pharaoh. Do we have another 3X Crowner this year? Does MurphDerby have the juice now that Baffert is a noun? Derby day will tell. Grab your juleps and lets go….
If you didn’t click the link for the OFFICIAL SONG – you’re going to miss the jokes.
Pace –
Our long time readers know that Murph Derby is all about that pace.
This year.... think the pace is fairly simple – it comes from middle inside – they squash the rail – it opens up the outside middle- for a pony or two to get a good trip and shock the world… or hit the board.
************************************************
“A horse walks around the paddock
He says, "Why am I soft in the middle, now?
Why am I soft in the middle?
The rest of my life is so hard
I need a photo-opportunity…..”
***************************************************
MurphDerby is going to play the field collapsing on the middle inside and opening up an opportunity on the outside middle. Any horse that isn't soft in the middle, will bang for position, and be on pace around the 2nd turn is a horse that can win...
CARTOON GRAVE YARD, BONEDIGGER, BONEDIGGER – dead to begin with.
1)Hit show: 30-1 - Thats what they called Jakes Autobody when we played FOE. This isn't Jakes Autobody.
2)Verifying: 15-1 Gonna have a worst trip than DeHart circa '98.
3)Two Phil’s: 12-1 - This horse is as dead as Arlington Park
9) Skinner: 20-1 – Fun Principal, bad horse. last horse in field, Rich Strike – don’t mention him
10) Practical Move: 10-1 - scratched - brilliant move by me to put him here. Bet if you want, but zero chance it makes the start gate.
11) Disarm: 30-1 – NRA won’t let this horse win. I said too much already.
12) Jace’s Road: May be Jace's Road but this aint his track. Might hear from him early.
13) Sun Thunder: 50-1 – He is the Sire of Zeus… Never mind misread that. No chance. (best joke on this sheet - A+ if you get it)
14) Confidence Game: 20-1 Contender for worst name in the field. Hasn't raced since
Pretenders
7)Reincarmate: 50-1 – Monster race in the the rebel, and then laid a dud last time out. Can never rule johnny v out. Ill take the 50-1 odds to the ticket window.
6) Kingsbarns: 12-1 – Pletcher / Ortiz; Name makes me think he's the A-hole in the paddock. But he won Louisiana derby in a front running style and with no real early speed horses if the first leg :23 and its over 1:12 around the second turn he could have a shot.
8) Mage 15-1 – Mage - a magician or learned person. A little unknown fact about a MurphDerby- he wants to become nasty at a magic trick or two. Follow's Tannen's on insta but too scared to push it forward. Mage was second to forte in Florida derby and his previous race. Can he get better in his 4th start? Does he have a rabbit in his hoof?
16)Raise Cain: 50-1 – This is a Wendy's sir. Who shows up? Gotham or bluegrass
17) Derma Sotogake: 10-1 Sotogake is a sumo wrestling maneuver in which the attacker hooks an opponent's lead leg and forces him backwards. In this sport we are going forward. Maybe he should be in the graveyard.
18) Rocket Can: 30-1 Say his name without singing Rocket Man - you can't. Cant be done!!!
21) Cyclone Mischief: 30-1 - I love mischief. Live for it. But he's going to have show massive improvement from his last outing.
Looking for that photo opportunity
"He is surrounded by the sound, the sound
Cattle in the marketplace
Scatterings and orphanages
He looks around, around
He sees angels in the architecture
Spinning in infinity
He says, "Amen and Hallelujah!""
The sound around the 4th turn is ALWAYS TALKED ABOUT. Who has the heart. Who sees the angles. Who will be sinnging hallelujah passing the finish line??
5) Tapit Trice: 5-1 - Ill Tapit all night long. 4 wins in a row. Tapit is his old man. Saez is here to redeem himself from the Maximum Security debacle.
14) Angel of Empire: 8-1 - Name of champion. Name of a God. He's a big time playa in the derby. Big outing in Arkansas Derby. Hes the f'n grrrr - can run in traffic, off the pace, he will be locked and loaded
15) Forte: 3-1 He's the belle of the ball. The big Kahona. Jakes Autobody. He's a winner. Won the Breeders Cub Juvenile (super bowl for all 2 year olds), 5 straight wins, Irad on him, and it goes on and on.
And the winnnnnnnerrrrr is.....
I'm going chalk...
Win - Forte
Place - Tapit Trice
Show - Ange of Empire / Reincarmate