2018 Murph Derby Analysis:
High level talking points to sound like you are a true degenerate:
As Meghan Trainor once wisely said – It’s all about the pace. A lot of good pace / tactical speed in the race. How the race plays out and trips horses get is what we are looking at this year baetch’s. Don’t need 6 star platinum access to know that Promises Fullfilled is going to be sent to lead early. Just how fast for how long will he go? My guess is he won’t be faster than 1:11 for ¾ mile. If he comes in at 1:09 we have a problem. But he won’t….. Let’s dance. THROW AWAYS 1 Firenze Fire – See “dumpster fire” 3 Promises Fulfilled – Going to be THE most talked about horse all day. Probably going to get a ton of Instagram follows. Will set the pace, be heard from early, but will pass out at the mile mark never to be heard from again. 4 Flameaway– Second in bluegrass, gritty performance, never gave up, determination. Could have played for Jake’s Autobody, but unfortunately ended up on FOE. Loser city. 8 Lone Sailor - Sounds like the name of Mark Wahlberg’s next movie 12 Enticed – Fart noise 13 Bravazo Bravazo –Finally answers the age-old question - Is one Bravazo enough? 15 Instilled – This isn’t a race to this guy; it’s a day out frollocking around with his friends. Will have a good time going out for a run, but no chance. 20 Combatant – And the Hardo Name of The Year goes to…. PRETENDERS 6 Good Magic – Who the hell ever would ever waste their time on good magic; give me In & Of Itself or bust (google that & if in NYC GO SEE). Was bred and trained for this race, but just doesn’t have enough. He is a big name and will be bet hard but odds ain’t worth it. 11 Bolt d’Oro Number 2 to Justify with a beyer of 110 in San Anita Derby. Good horse and could / maybe ruin my day, but he won’t. Will be in gate early and is suspect to bad breaks. Everyone knows I have taken to the French culture recently (ask me about my scarf), so if he goes off higher than 8:1 - I won’t hate you for using him. 10 My Boy Jack – Everyone needs a Jack in their life. This guy is more of a Richard. 16 Magnum Moon Undefeated, going off as 3rd favorite, but I don’t see him hitting the board. He has ok figures, but when runs down stretch pulls to the right BIG TIME. He is hardly a magnum. Stick to regular Trojan’s bro. 19 Noble Indy – Really wanted to like NI, but with the 19 post I’m running away faster than you can spell TRUMP. Louisiana derby winner, underrated Pletcher horse. Found way to win the race at end. Value Horses 17 Solomini – This guy loves to mix it up and isn’t afraid to run in a pack. Big time gamer. Original dirt dog. If Bill Murphy where a horse with an Italian name some say this would be him. Curlin Sire being trained by Bab Baffert with a morning line of 30:1 – YES please. 18 Vino Rosso – There is more jockey drama with this horse than the last three seasons of Jockey’s of Saratoga combined. John Valezquez claimed Vino Roso over Audible and Bolt D Oro. Not sure what exactly that means but it means something. VR isn’t afraid to bump and grind his way down the track. He got lucky with a fast pace to win the Wood. If this race surprises with a fast pace he could offer a nice pay day somewhere on the board. I don’t think it will be a fast-enough pace – no thanks. 9 Hofburg– I wanted this guy in a big way in Fl Derby, but he placed. Only 3 starts, benefits if pace is on faster side, and has the legs for the 1 ¼ distance. If goes off greater than 12:1 – use in exotics. 6 Free Drop Billy – This guy is always in the money. Good pedigree. In the Bluegrass he was making a run and got taken out by Sporting Chance. At 30:1 will be used in exotics for show. CONTENDERS 5 Audible – Very vanilla name which makes it exotic in to and of itself. Fascinated to know the thought process there – someone get on that. Benefits from a faster pace as he won’t be on the pace early. Won Florida Derby. Good consistent speed figures. If gets a good trip he will run at the end. Love at anything greater than 8-1. 7 Justify Beast. His balls are bigger than the rest. 26 foot stride length compared to Audible at 24. Will hear a ton of talk about “curse of the Apollo” and that’s not a distressed debt joke. He didn’t run as 2 year old and no horse has won since 1882 that has taken a sabbatical while 2. He won San Anita derby and has the highest beyer at 114. More raw talent than anyone. Will need to be on the lead early. Currently at 3:1 which is cheap. 14 Mendelssohn Named after a 19th century composer who wrote in the early romantic period. Sold for $3 million and has been balling out in Ireland since. Will be making only his 2nd start on dirt. As such he has a ton of haters. But in his first dirt start the dude won the UAE Derby in gate-to-wire fashion and won by 17 lengths. He didn’t want to run early, but there is a ton of horse here. 5:1 – yes please. And the PICKS are... Show: Audible – Has the distance and if pace is faster than expected he could surprise to win. Place: Mendelssohn - This Lad calls Ireland his home and dominated UAE Derby. State-side analysts all have a homer bias which offers morning line of 5:1 which I think is cheap. Hammer him if goes off at 7:1 Win: Justify – Best horse by far. Will be put to lead to stalk pace which won’t be crazy fast. It will be a good Derby pace and he will leave enough to close. A lot of people will view not running as a 2 year-old as a negative and won’t touch him giving him better odds. Like at 3:1 and will be ecstatic should he go off anywhere near 4:1. |