2017 Murph Derby Analysis:
Let's kick things off with an old mad lib.
This year’s Derby is more wide open than a __ADJECTIVE__ ___PERSON____ at Dorian’s on a Thursday. Add in some rain in the forecast and it will be ____VERB___ harder than a ___FAMILY MEMBER___ on Earth Day. Find the Mudder __VERB __ the Mudder – Get Paid. Stud __ADJECTIVE __ is the only __NOUN__ to know who gets __ADJECTIVE. Let’s get __ADJECTIVE___.
Love this Derby. __VERB__this Derby. All the factors are ___VERB__ for __SIZE__ payday. Let’s _VERB __ payday.
Not sure why these homies are running:
3) Fast and Accurate 50:1 – You’d have me if name was Fast and Furious - but its not.
4) Untapped 30:1 (Mudder) – Never won. May here from early but that’s it.
6) State of Honor 30:1 – No class. In this for the pageantry. Stranger things have happened?
10) Gunnevera 15:1 (Mudder) – Most underrated Wyclef song. Has won last to first and signs he could run well in the mud. Outclassed and pedigree suggests he is better suited for Secretary of Glue Factory.
13) J Boys Echo 20: 1 – Won the Gotham (fav name of a race) to punch ticket. Finished 4th in Bluegrass. His mom is proud and will be cheering hard but she will be the only one.
20) Patch – This guy has one eye. He’s coming out of the last post and his good eye is facing outward. Will he think he’s the only horse in the race? Can we get a go pro on his jockey to replicate this perspective? Will he sport a cool eye patch and dress as a pirate to psych out the other horses? Time will tell.
Low Energy Jeb – You want to like but know they will get shoved in a locker in this field.
1) Lookin at Lee 20:1 (Mudder) – If you over think it you can talk yourself in to thinking he can win. He can’t and won’t. He’s in the debates for maybe a place or show – maybe. And again – you can convince yourself. But don’t.
8) Hence (Mudder) 15:1 – Closed to win Sundland Derby from last. He let “Hedge Fund” jump out to a quick lead – yes Hedge Fund is name of that horse (owned by a Chinese Entity and Winstar Farms) and yes he has an awesome collection of Patagonia vests. If off track and odds are there then could play in exotic wagers for place / show.
19) Practical Joke 20:1 - My editor is all over my ass to get this out the door. Owned by Baupost’s own Seth Klarman. That’s all I got.
Lyin Ted – Don’t know what to believe with these horses.
2) Thunderstorm 20:1 (Mudder) – Comes from Europe. Started running on the grass. Active recently. Will avoid this Brexit trade.
11) Battle of Midway who cares :1 - Placed in the San Anita Derby. But that field combined had less speed than the Murphy lineage. But I love the San Anita Derby.
Crooked Hillary – Have great teams but not the horse I’d run.
9) Irap 20:1 – Dream Team of owners, trainer, and jockey have won 2 derby’s in last 5 years. Won the Bluegrass stakes by beating some very good horses. Was first time ran without blinkers and it proved effective. Just don’t see it.
12) Sonneteer – Fastest closing 3/8 of any contender. Improved each start and would kill it in as a county clerk. National stage is outmatched.
18) Gormley 15:1 – Urban dictionary defines Gormley as a situation that is used to distract you from the truth. Won Santa Anita but will he show up? Don’t let this guy distract you from picking a winner.
Lil Marco’s - Have the pedigree and will get the hype. Come game time they will be no shows.
5) Always Dreaming 4:1 – He is going to get a ton of hype from the TV. “Experts” will be talking him up but won’t give you the truth because deep down in places they don’t talk about at Derby parties these experts know he has been running off in workouts this week. He hasn’t been training well and he has his team nervous. He will chase Fast and Accurate to pace and be done by fourth turn. With too many wildcards in this race the odds are too bad here. But ya sure he could win and ruin my day.
7) Girvin – Joe Sharp, 32 year old trainer first start in Derby. Has hurt right hoof. But is 3 for 4 and won Louisiana Derby last time out. Is like the perfect __NUMBER__ but was __VERB_ by your __PERSON__ first.
Irish War Cry – Born May 2nd, Youngest Horse in the field.
Crazy Bernie - Good hype, but not believable. Or…. Maybe… Maybe…
14) Classic Empire 4:1– Could go off as favorite and probably deserves it. Best horses as a 2 year old and continues to carry that gravitas. Won the Arkansas Derby and has won last to first so should sit off pace and close well. He’s more of a Bush than a nobody from VT. If odds slip will play better on a ticket.
16) Tapwrit 20:1 – REDLIGHT SPECIAL – at 20:1 this is the value buy of the century. Won Tampa Derby but laid a dud at Keenelend in Bluegrass. Lightly race two year old is still figuring out this racing thing but could be game on Saturday. His dad is a Stud – literally – and should be used on all tickets.
17) Irish War Cry 6:1 – Kentucky Derby is limited to 3 year old horses (based on year born). Irish Wary Cry was born May 2nd (Taurus) and is youngest horse. Let’s throw Mel Gibson on him and make Braveheart 2. Impressive win at the Wood Memorial, but the track was dry and anytime a horse made a move they ate a hoof full of dirt and then dropped back. He ran to lead and held it. Won’t play that way Saturday.
Biden / Murphy – The Dream Ticket
Winner
McCraken – He is the ex that you keep going back to but don’t know why (we all know why). Drove me crazy last race with his first loss in Bluegrass. But I am back. He’s a winner. Winner’s hang together. Been training well and the knock is he doesn’t have blazing speed. Track won’t be fast and he can win multiple ways. Loves to run in a pack and not afraid to punch you in the mouth and keep going.
Place
Irish War Cry / Taprwrit – need to play both with Tapwrit’s odds. Wouldn’t hate you for Classic Empire.
*****Bonus Pick***** Will someone scratch and give Royal Mo a shot???? Love any horse by Uncle Mo and as royalty myself I don’t need to know anything about Royal Mo but will bet YUGGGGGGEEE if he gets a shot. I mean its 2017. Trump is back in NYC this weekend. Crazier shit has happened than a horse entering field last minute and winning – am I right?
Let's kick things off with an old mad lib.
This year’s Derby is more wide open than a __ADJECTIVE__ ___PERSON____ at Dorian’s on a Thursday. Add in some rain in the forecast and it will be ____VERB___ harder than a ___FAMILY MEMBER___ on Earth Day. Find the Mudder __VERB __ the Mudder – Get Paid. Stud __ADJECTIVE __ is the only __NOUN__ to know who gets __ADJECTIVE. Let’s get __ADJECTIVE___.
Love this Derby. __VERB__this Derby. All the factors are ___VERB__ for __SIZE__ payday. Let’s _VERB __ payday.
Not sure why these homies are running:
3) Fast and Accurate 50:1 – You’d have me if name was Fast and Furious - but its not.
4) Untapped 30:1 (Mudder) – Never won. May here from early but that’s it.
6) State of Honor 30:1 – No class. In this for the pageantry. Stranger things have happened?
10) Gunnevera 15:1 (Mudder) – Most underrated Wyclef song. Has won last to first and signs he could run well in the mud. Outclassed and pedigree suggests he is better suited for Secretary of Glue Factory.
13) J Boys Echo 20: 1 – Won the Gotham (fav name of a race) to punch ticket. Finished 4th in Bluegrass. His mom is proud and will be cheering hard but she will be the only one.
20) Patch – This guy has one eye. He’s coming out of the last post and his good eye is facing outward. Will he think he’s the only horse in the race? Can we get a go pro on his jockey to replicate this perspective? Will he sport a cool eye patch and dress as a pirate to psych out the other horses? Time will tell.
Low Energy Jeb – You want to like but know they will get shoved in a locker in this field.
1) Lookin at Lee 20:1 (Mudder) – If you over think it you can talk yourself in to thinking he can win. He can’t and won’t. He’s in the debates for maybe a place or show – maybe. And again – you can convince yourself. But don’t.
8) Hence (Mudder) 15:1 – Closed to win Sundland Derby from last. He let “Hedge Fund” jump out to a quick lead – yes Hedge Fund is name of that horse (owned by a Chinese Entity and Winstar Farms) and yes he has an awesome collection of Patagonia vests. If off track and odds are there then could play in exotic wagers for place / show.
19) Practical Joke 20:1 - My editor is all over my ass to get this out the door. Owned by Baupost’s own Seth Klarman. That’s all I got.
Lyin Ted – Don’t know what to believe with these horses.
2) Thunderstorm 20:1 (Mudder) – Comes from Europe. Started running on the grass. Active recently. Will avoid this Brexit trade.
11) Battle of Midway who cares :1 - Placed in the San Anita Derby. But that field combined had less speed than the Murphy lineage. But I love the San Anita Derby.
Crooked Hillary – Have great teams but not the horse I’d run.
9) Irap 20:1 – Dream Team of owners, trainer, and jockey have won 2 derby’s in last 5 years. Won the Bluegrass stakes by beating some very good horses. Was first time ran without blinkers and it proved effective. Just don’t see it.
12) Sonneteer – Fastest closing 3/8 of any contender. Improved each start and would kill it in as a county clerk. National stage is outmatched.
18) Gormley 15:1 – Urban dictionary defines Gormley as a situation that is used to distract you from the truth. Won Santa Anita but will he show up? Don’t let this guy distract you from picking a winner.
Lil Marco’s - Have the pedigree and will get the hype. Come game time they will be no shows.
5) Always Dreaming 4:1 – He is going to get a ton of hype from the TV. “Experts” will be talking him up but won’t give you the truth because deep down in places they don’t talk about at Derby parties these experts know he has been running off in workouts this week. He hasn’t been training well and he has his team nervous. He will chase Fast and Accurate to pace and be done by fourth turn. With too many wildcards in this race the odds are too bad here. But ya sure he could win and ruin my day.
7) Girvin – Joe Sharp, 32 year old trainer first start in Derby. Has hurt right hoof. But is 3 for 4 and won Louisiana Derby last time out. Is like the perfect __NUMBER__ but was __VERB_ by your __PERSON__ first.
Irish War Cry – Born May 2nd, Youngest Horse in the field.
Crazy Bernie - Good hype, but not believable. Or…. Maybe… Maybe…
14) Classic Empire 4:1– Could go off as favorite and probably deserves it. Best horses as a 2 year old and continues to carry that gravitas. Won the Arkansas Derby and has won last to first so should sit off pace and close well. He’s more of a Bush than a nobody from VT. If odds slip will play better on a ticket.
16) Tapwrit 20:1 – REDLIGHT SPECIAL – at 20:1 this is the value buy of the century. Won Tampa Derby but laid a dud at Keenelend in Bluegrass. Lightly race two year old is still figuring out this racing thing but could be game on Saturday. His dad is a Stud – literally – and should be used on all tickets.
17) Irish War Cry 6:1 – Kentucky Derby is limited to 3 year old horses (based on year born). Irish Wary Cry was born May 2nd (Taurus) and is youngest horse. Let’s throw Mel Gibson on him and make Braveheart 2. Impressive win at the Wood Memorial, but the track was dry and anytime a horse made a move they ate a hoof full of dirt and then dropped back. He ran to lead and held it. Won’t play that way Saturday.
Biden / Murphy – The Dream Ticket
Winner
McCraken – He is the ex that you keep going back to but don’t know why (we all know why). Drove me crazy last race with his first loss in Bluegrass. But I am back. He’s a winner. Winner’s hang together. Been training well and the knock is he doesn’t have blazing speed. Track won’t be fast and he can win multiple ways. Loves to run in a pack and not afraid to punch you in the mouth and keep going.
Place
Irish War Cry / Taprwrit – need to play both with Tapwrit’s odds. Wouldn’t hate you for Classic Empire.
*****Bonus Pick***** Will someone scratch and give Royal Mo a shot???? Love any horse by Uncle Mo and as royalty myself I don’t need to know anything about Royal Mo but will bet YUGGGGGGEEE if he gets a shot. I mean its 2017. Trump is back in NYC this weekend. Crazier shit has happened than a horse entering field last minute and winning – am I right?