2012 Murph Derby Analysis:
Its going to be a warm day at Churchill tomorrow which should lead to a fast track so look for some action to come from the inside. Got the favorites coming out of 4,5,6 and the pace is going to come from 9 &14 so it should position the inside favorably. Got a bunch of losers on the outside and no horses will be near single digit odds come post time. With temperatures in the 80’s the infield of the track should be very tame – if anyone finds a live webcam showing the action don’t be selfish – send me the link!
Horse to throw out from the start:
Daddy long lets - trained by legendary irish trainer aiden o’brien, 12th of 13 at juvy last year at Churchill, doesn’t train on dirt.
Optimizer - tough to gate in juvy last year, terrible horse
Rousing sermon – what the *u#k kind of name is this?
Trinniberg – pace horse.
Alpha – problems training, he acts up, 2nd in wood to geomolgist. Think I’d party with him just wouldn’t bet on him
Prospective - his prospective isn’t looking very good
Hansen – won breeders cup juvy last year, runs great at Churchill, and has a good post. But he doesn’t have the distance. He will be in the pace from the start
El padino – 4th in the florida derby. Has bill Murphy speed.
Done talking & Liasion – coming out of 17 & 20 respectively I didn’t even bother
Sabercat – has trained well but will set the outside pace
Pretenders:
Dullahan – if the derby was run at keeneland this would be the horse to beat, but its not its run on the dirt of Churchill so no thanks on the 8-1 odds
Bodemeister - ya I said it, pretender. Meister means master in german, bode means to be an omen – or so says a 5 second google and glance at wikiepedia. if it was murphmeister I could bet on him, but its not. Last time a horse that didn’t race as two year old won derby was 1882, or 30 years before titantic tried to cross the atlantic. He won the Arkansas derby and placed the san felipe. He will be going off as the favorite and once again In a 20 field horse race I am going to stay away from the favorite.
I'll have another - stalked the pace to win santa anita. it was impressive but he's coming out of 19th gate... could position himself well as he's surrounded by slow horses but i dont think he can make up the extra distance
Daddy knows best – who knew pat mack’s favorite pick up line would be a name of a horse. triple digit beyer, has won twice at 9 furlongs, has had “courage” used as an adjective to describe him, but the lion from wizard of oz isn’t riding him and Dorothy aint f’n him. Won the sunland derby to get in, so he COULD be peaking at right time. He’s my favorite pretender.
Contenders:
Take Charge - coming from a take charge kind of guy, I like what his name says about him. Has won 3 out of 5 races and his half bros are my homies super saver and mine that bird. He won florida derby post to post and borel is riding him. Odds are going to go down on derby day but hes a must play.
Union Rags – loved this horse the second I laid eyes on him (through the tv) at the fountain of youth kicking. He’s a beast of a horse who will handle the distance well. He has run side to side down the stretch so that could hurt him but that may not even matter
Gemologist – pletcher horse with castellano on board. Is 5 for 5 andWon the wood by holding off alpha down the stretch and keeping lead from start to finish. He’s is getting a lot of love from the hired handicappers but rightfully so – its just f’n the odds at this point. Described as having heart, this running of the derby will ever be known as the derby of oz – I trademarked that.
Champion:
Creative Cause this bro ran down bodemeister down the stretch in the san felipe stakes and said hasta luego muchacho. He loves running in crowds and is coming out of lucky gate #8. He had some issues training as his trainer tried a tongue tie on him but they removed it and he looked great. He is owned by some 71 year old wind bag who said this is two derbies for him; his first and his last so look for a 15 minute nbc special on him at some point during the day.
Watch this race and tell me he’s not a champion, behrad mahdi isn’t running this race and courage and heart is not going to be able to be the refusal to lose that CC has in him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvQ66XW4WVw
2nd place finish at santa anita - if race went 5 more feet he wins. luckily the race will be an additional 1/8 of a mile on saturday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tS6KDCvl_tg
win - creative cause
place - take charge
third - union rags
Its going to be a warm day at Churchill tomorrow which should lead to a fast track so look for some action to come from the inside. Got the favorites coming out of 4,5,6 and the pace is going to come from 9 &14 so it should position the inside favorably. Got a bunch of losers on the outside and no horses will be near single digit odds come post time. With temperatures in the 80’s the infield of the track should be very tame – if anyone finds a live webcam showing the action don’t be selfish – send me the link!
Horse to throw out from the start:
Daddy long lets - trained by legendary irish trainer aiden o’brien, 12th of 13 at juvy last year at Churchill, doesn’t train on dirt.
Optimizer - tough to gate in juvy last year, terrible horse
Rousing sermon – what the *u#k kind of name is this?
Trinniberg – pace horse.
Alpha – problems training, he acts up, 2nd in wood to geomolgist. Think I’d party with him just wouldn’t bet on him
Prospective - his prospective isn’t looking very good
Hansen – won breeders cup juvy last year, runs great at Churchill, and has a good post. But he doesn’t have the distance. He will be in the pace from the start
El padino – 4th in the florida derby. Has bill Murphy speed.
Done talking & Liasion – coming out of 17 & 20 respectively I didn’t even bother
Sabercat – has trained well but will set the outside pace
Pretenders:
Dullahan – if the derby was run at keeneland this would be the horse to beat, but its not its run on the dirt of Churchill so no thanks on the 8-1 odds
Bodemeister - ya I said it, pretender. Meister means master in german, bode means to be an omen – or so says a 5 second google and glance at wikiepedia. if it was murphmeister I could bet on him, but its not. Last time a horse that didn’t race as two year old won derby was 1882, or 30 years before titantic tried to cross the atlantic. He won the Arkansas derby and placed the san felipe. He will be going off as the favorite and once again In a 20 field horse race I am going to stay away from the favorite.
I'll have another - stalked the pace to win santa anita. it was impressive but he's coming out of 19th gate... could position himself well as he's surrounded by slow horses but i dont think he can make up the extra distance
Daddy knows best – who knew pat mack’s favorite pick up line would be a name of a horse. triple digit beyer, has won twice at 9 furlongs, has had “courage” used as an adjective to describe him, but the lion from wizard of oz isn’t riding him and Dorothy aint f’n him. Won the sunland derby to get in, so he COULD be peaking at right time. He’s my favorite pretender.
Contenders:
Take Charge - coming from a take charge kind of guy, I like what his name says about him. Has won 3 out of 5 races and his half bros are my homies super saver and mine that bird. He won florida derby post to post and borel is riding him. Odds are going to go down on derby day but hes a must play.
Union Rags – loved this horse the second I laid eyes on him (through the tv) at the fountain of youth kicking. He’s a beast of a horse who will handle the distance well. He has run side to side down the stretch so that could hurt him but that may not even matter
Gemologist – pletcher horse with castellano on board. Is 5 for 5 andWon the wood by holding off alpha down the stretch and keeping lead from start to finish. He’s is getting a lot of love from the hired handicappers but rightfully so – its just f’n the odds at this point. Described as having heart, this running of the derby will ever be known as the derby of oz – I trademarked that.
Champion:
Creative Cause this bro ran down bodemeister down the stretch in the san felipe stakes and said hasta luego muchacho. He loves running in crowds and is coming out of lucky gate #8. He had some issues training as his trainer tried a tongue tie on him but they removed it and he looked great. He is owned by some 71 year old wind bag who said this is two derbies for him; his first and his last so look for a 15 minute nbc special on him at some point during the day.
Watch this race and tell me he’s not a champion, behrad mahdi isn’t running this race and courage and heart is not going to be able to be the refusal to lose that CC has in him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvQ66XW4WVw
2nd place finish at santa anita - if race went 5 more feet he wins. luckily the race will be an additional 1/8 of a mile on saturday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tS6KDCvl_tg
win - creative cause
place - take charge
third - union rags