2011 Murph Derby Analysis:
Heavy favorite uncle mo had a shitty performance at the wood and there is speculation that he is hurt. I have a good feeling this information is a lot more reliable than osama being in a cave somewhere. As he drew the 18 post, it may make him legal but I highlyyy recommend you do not touch, poke, or even think about him. Same goes for Nehro. That leaves dialed in as the only horse on the board right now better than 10-1… more on him to come later
It has been dumping rain all week at Churchill, forecast calls for it to be sunny on Thursday a little rain on Friday with some potential for some thunderstorms on race day. Condition of track will be of HUGE importance, and yes that’s what she said. Track has a few days to dry out so the rain leading up to race and condition of track will sway some picks one way or another.
Horses to throw out on the street
Watch me go – 20 post and the horse sucks
Animal kingdom first race on dirt, turf pedigree, jockey broke his nose on wed
Pants on fire – *****edited
Master of Hounds – turf horse, couldn’t even win UAE derby
Comma to the top – likes to run distances about as much as I do
Shackleford – will set the pace for the 2nd gate group, will chase the pace and burnout like a 7 year old that listens to the dead
Midnight interlude – didn’t race as 2 year old, won depleted santa anita when jay-zito and premier Pegasus pussed out
Archarcharch – coming out of 1 post and has a 50 year old jockey.
Derby kitten – cause I said so
How the race will be run
The pace will be set from the middle and the outside from the 6,7,9,11, 14 and far outside horses. This will leave jockeys fighting for position on the inside but should open up some holes on the outside. With no real speed horses its all going to come down to tactical speed and being in position to close. If any of these horses are going to win they will need a good trip around the first turn to position themselves for the second turn to leave enough in the tank to close it out.
Contenders
Stay thirsty – uncle mo’s workout partner, came in 7th at the florida derby but had blinkers on has had great workouts without the blinkers and has the stamina to close, sire of bernardini. I won’t play but won’t judge you if you do.
Decisive Moment – has a ton of dirt experience and is a mudder, if there is slop may find a spot on my ticket but hasn’t won a graded race and last race at 1 1/8 in a time of 1:52.2 is not setting any records.
Mucho Macho Man – has only finished worse than 2nd once, has raced in big fields, has great times at 1 1/8, im just not convinced he has enough to close the deal. He’s the friend who dresses well, has no problem talking to ladies, but wakes up by himself.
The Master’s Ticket
Santiva – going to be on the board at about 1,000 to 1, for the odds my favorite horse. Last race was on the poly at keeneland and finished 9th which means nothing but better odds to me. Won the Jockey Club last year at chuch hill so he’s a winner on the dirt. His real upside is in his pedigree; Sire is Giant Causeway – pretty much the trot Nixon of horse racing. Won 5 grade 1 races in a row and just left it all on the track. Don’t get me wrong, I am banking on him getting a good position based on where the pace horses will rush out but that should give him plenty of room to position himself, something he did not get at the blue grass. Again for the odds this is a must play in your exotics.
Twice the Appeal – Jockey is Calvin Borel, could just say that and move on but that sneaky lil bastard got the 3 post and will once again ride the rail until the second turn and will no doubt be in position to win the race. Borel could have rode Stay Thirsty but chose TTA instead and for good reason. TTA has won 3 out of last 4 races and has shown great tactical speed that responds well to the jockey. If Borel wasn’t on him probably would leave him alone as his blood line isn’t of great distance runners so Borel will need to be cautious of this and not sit back on the rail, but there is nobody better than Borel.
Dialed In – Will go off as the favorite, won 3 of last 4, has won at Churchill and is a closer. He's a red sox fan, a winner, and makes a meat ball sauce your mama would be proud of. Sounds perfect right? Too many variables in the derby to go big on a horse that will probably go off at no better than 3-1.
And the winner is……..
Brilliant Speed – Not a great dirt horse, in fact lost both dirt races by double digit lengths. Won the blue grass on the poly track of keeneland which is not known for producing Derby winning horses…. But… Going to be jockey’d by Joel Rosario a 23 year old up and coming super star in the land of the lil people and the horse isn’t that bad either. In fact he’s the half brother of a horse called BARBARO and ma dukes put another horse in show at the derby. May not be a dirt horse but has had very good workouts this week in the mud. And I don’t care that blue grass isn’t a traditional prep race for a derby winner BS is the only horse that kicked in to another gear to close in ANY prep race this year. He came from last to win it off the turn, his last 1/8 mile was at 11.6 seconds, 13 would be good…. He’s coming out of the 2 spot so will be off the pace so this should allow some room for him to position himself with TTA and Dialed in, but I will take his stamina to run the extra 1/8 mile to the crown at 1 ¼.
2011 blue grass
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDkwuH0r4Iw
Pay Me
1. brilliant speed
2. dialed in
3. santiva
4. Twice the appeal
Heavy favorite uncle mo had a shitty performance at the wood and there is speculation that he is hurt. I have a good feeling this information is a lot more reliable than osama being in a cave somewhere. As he drew the 18 post, it may make him legal but I highlyyy recommend you do not touch, poke, or even think about him. Same goes for Nehro. That leaves dialed in as the only horse on the board right now better than 10-1… more on him to come later
It has been dumping rain all week at Churchill, forecast calls for it to be sunny on Thursday a little rain on Friday with some potential for some thunderstorms on race day. Condition of track will be of HUGE importance, and yes that’s what she said. Track has a few days to dry out so the rain leading up to race and condition of track will sway some picks one way or another.
Horses to throw out on the street
Watch me go – 20 post and the horse sucks
Animal kingdom first race on dirt, turf pedigree, jockey broke his nose on wed
Pants on fire – *****edited
Master of Hounds – turf horse, couldn’t even win UAE derby
Comma to the top – likes to run distances about as much as I do
Shackleford – will set the pace for the 2nd gate group, will chase the pace and burnout like a 7 year old that listens to the dead
Midnight interlude – didn’t race as 2 year old, won depleted santa anita when jay-zito and premier Pegasus pussed out
Archarcharch – coming out of 1 post and has a 50 year old jockey.
Derby kitten – cause I said so
How the race will be run
The pace will be set from the middle and the outside from the 6,7,9,11, 14 and far outside horses. This will leave jockeys fighting for position on the inside but should open up some holes on the outside. With no real speed horses its all going to come down to tactical speed and being in position to close. If any of these horses are going to win they will need a good trip around the first turn to position themselves for the second turn to leave enough in the tank to close it out.
Contenders
Stay thirsty – uncle mo’s workout partner, came in 7th at the florida derby but had blinkers on has had great workouts without the blinkers and has the stamina to close, sire of bernardini. I won’t play but won’t judge you if you do.
Decisive Moment – has a ton of dirt experience and is a mudder, if there is slop may find a spot on my ticket but hasn’t won a graded race and last race at 1 1/8 in a time of 1:52.2 is not setting any records.
Mucho Macho Man – has only finished worse than 2nd once, has raced in big fields, has great times at 1 1/8, im just not convinced he has enough to close the deal. He’s the friend who dresses well, has no problem talking to ladies, but wakes up by himself.
The Master’s Ticket
Santiva – going to be on the board at about 1,000 to 1, for the odds my favorite horse. Last race was on the poly at keeneland and finished 9th which means nothing but better odds to me. Won the Jockey Club last year at chuch hill so he’s a winner on the dirt. His real upside is in his pedigree; Sire is Giant Causeway – pretty much the trot Nixon of horse racing. Won 5 grade 1 races in a row and just left it all on the track. Don’t get me wrong, I am banking on him getting a good position based on where the pace horses will rush out but that should give him plenty of room to position himself, something he did not get at the blue grass. Again for the odds this is a must play in your exotics.
Twice the Appeal – Jockey is Calvin Borel, could just say that and move on but that sneaky lil bastard got the 3 post and will once again ride the rail until the second turn and will no doubt be in position to win the race. Borel could have rode Stay Thirsty but chose TTA instead and for good reason. TTA has won 3 out of last 4 races and has shown great tactical speed that responds well to the jockey. If Borel wasn’t on him probably would leave him alone as his blood line isn’t of great distance runners so Borel will need to be cautious of this and not sit back on the rail, but there is nobody better than Borel.
Dialed In – Will go off as the favorite, won 3 of last 4, has won at Churchill and is a closer. He's a red sox fan, a winner, and makes a meat ball sauce your mama would be proud of. Sounds perfect right? Too many variables in the derby to go big on a horse that will probably go off at no better than 3-1.
And the winner is……..
Brilliant Speed – Not a great dirt horse, in fact lost both dirt races by double digit lengths. Won the blue grass on the poly track of keeneland which is not known for producing Derby winning horses…. But… Going to be jockey’d by Joel Rosario a 23 year old up and coming super star in the land of the lil people and the horse isn’t that bad either. In fact he’s the half brother of a horse called BARBARO and ma dukes put another horse in show at the derby. May not be a dirt horse but has had very good workouts this week in the mud. And I don’t care that blue grass isn’t a traditional prep race for a derby winner BS is the only horse that kicked in to another gear to close in ANY prep race this year. He came from last to win it off the turn, his last 1/8 mile was at 11.6 seconds, 13 would be good…. He’s coming out of the 2 spot so will be off the pace so this should allow some room for him to position himself with TTA and Dialed in, but I will take his stamina to run the extra 1/8 mile to the crown at 1 ¼.
2011 blue grass
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDkwuH0r4Iw
Pay Me
1. brilliant speed
2. dialed in
3. santiva
4. Twice the appeal