2013 Murph Derby Analysis:
There is a lot of love for Verrazano and Orb early with them being on the board at 4-1 odds. Urban dictionary defines Orb as someone acting in the opposite manner of a “bro.” Such as, Pat told on us. What an orb. So you have a bridge and an anti-bro as your leaders and then 4 of the 8 inside horses coming from the Louisiana Derby which was a tough, gritty, deep race. 14 horses deep. It was an orb party.
Not a ton of speed horses so the race should play out well for a field that is filled with stalking horses. Look for pace to be set from Oxbow at the 2, Goldenscents at 8, and Falling Sky at 13 which doesn’t open a specific hole so there will be a lot of jockeying for position. With 6 first time jockey’s this should favor those who have been here before. If you remove the two heavy favorites the field is littered with solid horses and in a 20 horse race its anyone’s race. Good thing God blessed you to know me and receive this email. Ignore the glue factory picks and my final picks and go with everything in between and you should do just fine… That was sarcasm. Go with the master.
Send to glue factory
1. Onyx (50/1): half of kriss kross just died, onyx is next. Slam jump down up.
8. Goldencents won san anita, first time derby jockey, pace horse, don’t see going the distance
7. Giant Finish: Jose L. Espinoza, jockey first derby, think his name is overcompensating for something…
12. Itsmyluckyday: trained with a 53 second 4 furlong session. He has been awarded the 7th annual Murphy Speed Award, and that’s not a good thing.
9. Overanalyze: Rafael Bejarano: Has been training well but this horse is more bipolar than Amanda Bynes and 2006 Bynes isn’t walking through that door.
15. Charming Kitten: good jockey in Edgar Prado but this horse reminds me of good game, good effort Miami heat fan kid. Will race hard but is going to be short and going nowhere in life.
17. Will Take Charge: poor race on Churchill last year, long lay off, kind of blah.
20. Vyjack : 3rd in wood memorial, couldn’t keep late charge, 20th post dug his grave
Pretenders
4. Golden Soul (50/1): good training week, bad trip in Louisiana, buy had a good
close at end. Love the odds… but the handicapper is smarter than I am and he says 50:1
10. Palace Malice Son of Curlin. Got a bad trip in Louisiana derby, good run in bluegrass but got tracked down by java’s war. Good horse, not a winner. Winners party with winners and I am a winner.
6. Mylute (16/1): Rosie Napravnik – yes female jockey named Rosie. Yes I rock for Rosie and my new niece’s name is Rosie, so yes this will be on a ticket somewhere / somehow, but the horse isn’t named rosie and the horse couldn’t run down the winner of Louisiana Derby and it has a lineage of sprinters…
Contenders
I don’t know if I have anything funny to say. You will hear these two horses repeatedly (assuming you even care). They are great horses. Just don’t like the odds as too much can and will go wrong in this race. Or not.
14. Verrazano (4/1): John R. Velazquez
Won wood memorial, stalked early and then made move before 4th turn. He was aggressive in Tampa to put self in on rail then stalked pace before pulling away around 4th turn.
16. Orb (4/1): Joel Rosario
Great horse, has run well, but hasn’t run in crowds and has had great trips around the track. Won florida derby pulling away on the turn. Stalked, good trip, whipped to kick it in, reacted well.
Winners
You won’t see this ticket elsewhere. It’s like a girl having three nipples. Sounds kind of weird and you don’t want to be interested, but god damnit are you intrigued and can’t not look. Plus it’s a lot more fun this way. More excitement, more entertainment, more pleasure.
Without further adieu..
19. Java's War (16/1): Julien Leparoux
102 5f session this week. Not blazing speed, but this isn’t going to be a fast race. This is going to be grind it out, party on the dance floor, see who is standing at the end of the night, and then close the deal. Had a big finish in Tampa with a turn that was wider than Rhianna’s forehead. Followed that up with a big close in the Blue Grass. He will be dead last for the first 2 turns, but is guaranteed to make it interesting at the end.
3. Revolutionary (9/1): Calvin Borel
Won three in a row and had a bad trip in Louisiana derby to do so. Has beat everyone not named Orb and V Bridge in this race and has a first class team that will have him ready come 6:24 Saturday. Plus he will have Calvin Borel in the three post for one of his classic trips around the rail. Only thing I don’t like is that I expect odds to be cut in half by derby day.
5. Normandy Invasion (9/1): Javier Castellano
Bast of a horse that could teach Ari Gold how to close. If the wood were an extra 1/8th mile like the derby he tracks down verazzano and wins the wood memorial. The 5 post is tied w 1 post for most derby winners and if gets good trip around third rail lookout as he will be in great position to take the 4th turn and close this mother f’r down. Bad news is he’s becoming more popular than girls in white pants, but for good reason.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDn5cdnMpzs
3) java’s war
2) revolutionary
1) Murphy invasion
There is a lot of love for Verrazano and Orb early with them being on the board at 4-1 odds. Urban dictionary defines Orb as someone acting in the opposite manner of a “bro.” Such as, Pat told on us. What an orb. So you have a bridge and an anti-bro as your leaders and then 4 of the 8 inside horses coming from the Louisiana Derby which was a tough, gritty, deep race. 14 horses deep. It was an orb party.
Not a ton of speed horses so the race should play out well for a field that is filled with stalking horses. Look for pace to be set from Oxbow at the 2, Goldenscents at 8, and Falling Sky at 13 which doesn’t open a specific hole so there will be a lot of jockeying for position. With 6 first time jockey’s this should favor those who have been here before. If you remove the two heavy favorites the field is littered with solid horses and in a 20 horse race its anyone’s race. Good thing God blessed you to know me and receive this email. Ignore the glue factory picks and my final picks and go with everything in between and you should do just fine… That was sarcasm. Go with the master.
Send to glue factory
1. Onyx (50/1): half of kriss kross just died, onyx is next. Slam jump down up.
8. Goldencents won san anita, first time derby jockey, pace horse, don’t see going the distance
7. Giant Finish: Jose L. Espinoza, jockey first derby, think his name is overcompensating for something…
12. Itsmyluckyday: trained with a 53 second 4 furlong session. He has been awarded the 7th annual Murphy Speed Award, and that’s not a good thing.
9. Overanalyze: Rafael Bejarano: Has been training well but this horse is more bipolar than Amanda Bynes and 2006 Bynes isn’t walking through that door.
15. Charming Kitten: good jockey in Edgar Prado but this horse reminds me of good game, good effort Miami heat fan kid. Will race hard but is going to be short and going nowhere in life.
17. Will Take Charge: poor race on Churchill last year, long lay off, kind of blah.
20. Vyjack : 3rd in wood memorial, couldn’t keep late charge, 20th post dug his grave
Pretenders
4. Golden Soul (50/1): good training week, bad trip in Louisiana, buy had a good
close at end. Love the odds… but the handicapper is smarter than I am and he says 50:1
10. Palace Malice Son of Curlin. Got a bad trip in Louisiana derby, good run in bluegrass but got tracked down by java’s war. Good horse, not a winner. Winners party with winners and I am a winner.
6. Mylute (16/1): Rosie Napravnik – yes female jockey named Rosie. Yes I rock for Rosie and my new niece’s name is Rosie, so yes this will be on a ticket somewhere / somehow, but the horse isn’t named rosie and the horse couldn’t run down the winner of Louisiana Derby and it has a lineage of sprinters…
Contenders
I don’t know if I have anything funny to say. You will hear these two horses repeatedly (assuming you even care). They are great horses. Just don’t like the odds as too much can and will go wrong in this race. Or not.
14. Verrazano (4/1): John R. Velazquez
Won wood memorial, stalked early and then made move before 4th turn. He was aggressive in Tampa to put self in on rail then stalked pace before pulling away around 4th turn.
16. Orb (4/1): Joel Rosario
Great horse, has run well, but hasn’t run in crowds and has had great trips around the track. Won florida derby pulling away on the turn. Stalked, good trip, whipped to kick it in, reacted well.
Winners
You won’t see this ticket elsewhere. It’s like a girl having three nipples. Sounds kind of weird and you don’t want to be interested, but god damnit are you intrigued and can’t not look. Plus it’s a lot more fun this way. More excitement, more entertainment, more pleasure.
Without further adieu..
19. Java's War (16/1): Julien Leparoux
102 5f session this week. Not blazing speed, but this isn’t going to be a fast race. This is going to be grind it out, party on the dance floor, see who is standing at the end of the night, and then close the deal. Had a big finish in Tampa with a turn that was wider than Rhianna’s forehead. Followed that up with a big close in the Blue Grass. He will be dead last for the first 2 turns, but is guaranteed to make it interesting at the end.
3. Revolutionary (9/1): Calvin Borel
Won three in a row and had a bad trip in Louisiana derby to do so. Has beat everyone not named Orb and V Bridge in this race and has a first class team that will have him ready come 6:24 Saturday. Plus he will have Calvin Borel in the three post for one of his classic trips around the rail. Only thing I don’t like is that I expect odds to be cut in half by derby day.
5. Normandy Invasion (9/1): Javier Castellano
Bast of a horse that could teach Ari Gold how to close. If the wood were an extra 1/8th mile like the derby he tracks down verazzano and wins the wood memorial. The 5 post is tied w 1 post for most derby winners and if gets good trip around third rail lookout as he will be in great position to take the 4th turn and close this mother f’r down. Bad news is he’s becoming more popular than girls in white pants, but for good reason.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDn5cdnMpzs
3) java’s war
2) revolutionary
1) Murphy invasion