2022 Murph Derby
Sponsored by MacMurchadha - your official sponsor of all things Murph Derby.
VENMO: @william-murphy-47
Sponsored by MacMurchadha - your official sponsor of all things Murph Derby.
VENMO: @william-murphy-47
I haven't been this excited for a pony race since - who cares - you get the message . If you remember, it was the MurphDerby team (me) that told you Baffert was juicing his horses. Of course, Medina (last years winner) gets the win and the DQ for illegal substances, but then suffers the ultimate consequence of passing away too soon from a heart attack - insert confused emoji... Sad to think that last years winner isn't around anymore because of.... But the industry, let Baffert compete (knowing), and there still remains a lot of $$$ supporting Baffert and the ilk. This isn't a political blog -and I can be bought for the right $$$ (baffert hit me up)- but I want to bring everyone's attention to the fact that white men have been telling horses, what they can do w their bodies for a minute, and its not a trend I think anyone should follow...
Enough of that. On to the ponies.
Love everyone texting, emailing, sending pigeon carriers to ask me where the write up is. I shut down my day today to finish this so I can lose money and not make it $$$$ - venmo is open. But I am a adult child (man) of the people. That's the only joke Ill define for you, so keep up.
Weather - great day to be in the infield. I ran the numbers and 13 years from now, 54% of Kentucky males over the age of 18 will have seen their first boob at this derby. Facts people, don't hate the messenger. ITS A WOMAN'S BODY AND WHO AM I TO TELL THEM WHAT TO DO. SHOW "EM IF YOU GOT 'EM. But yes, high 80's, humidity is 83%, w a UV factor of 9 out of 10. Single guys going to derby, bring sunscreen. You will come home w more numbers than MurphMack at Gypsy Bar circa '06 - again venmo open.
Is anyone streaming the infield? We were fortunate to have this group MacMurchadha sponsor us this year. They would do the same deal w you, $0 but bring attention, and attention should be had on any and all infield cams...
PACE. PACE... PACE.....
tHE MurphDerby team has always been all about that pace, that pace... This year it is going to define the outcome. All the expected speed horses are on the outside. The horse we like is in the middle. You need a good trip in the Derby (not like D*#$RT at UNH circa 2002), the last horse to win the Derby that wasn't in at least in 3rd at the half mile mark was in 2014. W temps in the high 80's and it going off at 7pm, the track is going to be FASTer then - (EDITORS NOTE - we have removed and censored this portion of the blog - continue on). Churchill Downs is known for running fast on the inside, and my read is the speed on the outside is going to collapse on the inside pace on first turn - so the horses on the inside need to be at or ON the lead at the first turn.. All the prep races have had speed that Bill Murphy could run with, which makes the pace difficult to define because nobody really knows where its coming from - long way of saying, its a lot of fun this year because the pace is going to create a volatile situation of who is who and where they are.
If you want to make $ watch the early races, if #'s hit from inside consistently that's called a track bias, run with it.
Making a Fecal Delivery
1. Mo Donegal (10-1) – Hate to have to include him w an Amber Heard deuce reference, but he got the “heard” end of the stick in the post draw and has a deuce % of a chance at winning.
2. Happy Jack (30-1) – I know a jack that loves marble races and Russian car chases. Don’t know a happy jack so this is an easy no.
4. Summer is Tomorrow (30-1) Bhupat Seemar (trainer) – the name of the horse must be mistranslated because this is just an awful name – it’s the most pessimistic name ever in an optimist game. No thanks.
5. Smile Happy (20-1) – “smile happy” – is that something your pageant coach tells you? I want my horse not smiling, not being happy, ready to rip FOE’s heart out because they think they belong.
9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1) highest career earnings of any horse in the race - that doesn't matter, just wanted to prove to you I did some research on him.
14. Barber Road - I know a Barbaro and this ain't him. No town needs a road dedicated to barbers. Lets stop overcomplicating something Fred's Barbershop (derry, nh) figured out long ago. Its a flat top and move on.
17. Classic Causeway (infinity-1) Those odds are being given out by the MurphDerby sports book, so if anyone wants to place a bet my venmo is open. $1k minimum.
18. Tawny Port (30-1) Brad H. Cox - I love Lexington, ky - I haven't sued their little league team of stealing my M Stars name yet and rebranding N stars but my lawyers are still looking in to it.. In all seriousness, never go to the Derby, go visit Keeneland in Lexington or Saratoga in NY and you'll see why people love this sport. That being said, Keeneland (in Lexington) is the shittiest prep race and that's how T Port ended up here. Great trainer, pedigree, etc... If he didn't draw 18 he wouldn't be here. But if I wasn't born white male in USA, neither would I.
19. Zozos (20-1) Brad H. Cox - can this horse hit the board, yes. Can I get a six pack (abs), yes. Neither are happening.
20. Ethereal Road (30-1) - I did no research on this horse, but he's coming out of 20 hole, and has a name that just screams loser.
Pretenders
7. Crown Pride (20-1) coming over from UAE and contrary to the belief that $ solves problems (it does), it just doesn't solve winning the derby. Good horse, but not for me.
8. Charge It (who cares) free financial advice - but not from MacMurchadha - from my editor - the economy has some legs to run via consumer debt - charging. But unfortunately for my amigo here the derby dont work that way. Short this mo fo.
10. Zandon (3-1) - MurphDerby has to have a view. Its the only reason we do this for free. Zandon is going to be on your mother in law's ticket, your 3rd cousins ticket, everyone you despise, and for good reason - good horse for people that dont have a view. Price is going to be rich because he has an overrated trainer that is known for TURF horses. If he can bring Chad's special drink (like MJ in space jam) he might have a shot, but the authorities are watching this year and I don't see it.
13.Simplification (20-1) - Irad Ortiz is the jockey and a bad mamba jamba. He's the bully on the playground and you can never rule him out. Simp ran an underwhelming race last time out and should have long odds that I don't hate. I just like other things a little more. Don't yell at me if he hits - this is a free service - and if you haven't had 4-5 good laughs by now you are hopeless anyways...
15.White Abarrio (10-1) - The Scalabrine of the KY Derby. If it aint white it aint right - am I right? Grow up, he ain't winning. If he drew inside of 13 maybe - but he has too much speed on his inside.
16. Cyberknife (20-1) - if there is one horse I hold the right to change my opinion on its this hombre. WHAT A FUCKN NAME!!!! People have called me Murph Diesel, Murph $$$, Murphinator, Boomerang, Captain Tornado - to name a few - but I'd give them all up to be called Cyberknife. Its going to be hot, the big pageantry is going to put the horses in the sun for lord knows how long - will that impact the race - god knows and he told me no, but Cyberknife dont care - we dont even know if he lives in the dark web or the metaverse. He won't win.
Contenders
3. Epicenter (3-1) This guy could play for Jakes Autobody. Big story here is going to be Asmussen, trainer, is the all time $$$ winner (trainer) in North America and has never won derby. Maybe because from the little I know he does it the right way? Maybe he has a great process / firm where he can manage more horses? I don't know but he seems like a guy my uncle frank can have a beer with. When I am in 'toga at Siros late LATE night hes respected. Lets put the sentimental behind because we are here to win $$$$. Epicenter is an f'n beast - to steal an adjective from a friend. He's bigger, stronger, and has th%$**** (editors note - we had to remove Bill's use of the english language to describe the size of a male body part). - Bill's note - I publish this so F my editor. He has a hog. He's the big swinging dick in the glue factory and he knows it. Field of 20 horses, you are going to be banging and neighing trash. You need confidence and to be the alpha.
6. Messier (6-1) - He has johnny v riding him and johhny v has won 3 of last 5 derby's (baffert horses)- hes one of the best. He's being trained by Yakteen - who is Baffert's assistant - insert confused emoji. Oddly he has some of the best speed figures. Is it training (can't say baffert isn't a good trainer)? Is it just a great horse? Or is it something else. Last year Medina put up a 108 beyer for all 6 splits - never happens - normally you get 4/6 in that range to win. People are going to bid him up because its baffert / johnny V. If he goes off 10-1 I'll play, but wont touch at anything south of 8.
11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1) Me and his old man go way back. You can tell bill murphy you don't like his hair cut, he can't dance for $hit, but you can't tell him he's not loyal. Me and his old man made $$$, had some laughs, and I am going to use MurphDerby to will him to run his best on Saturday. Might not be enough, but he's improving, lightly raced, has the pedigree for this, GREAT post, and if he's anywhere near 30-1 hammer and I mean HAMMER him for place / show.
12. Taiba (12-1) - his odds should come in aggressively. If he's near 12-1 he gets the bill murphy 5 start diamond platinum bet for place / show - never been used before. The knock on him is thinly raced... people hated on justify because he was thinly raced as well - go back to my write up on him - called him winning triple crown a month before derby AND HE DID. Taiba isn't that good, but at 12-1 he's my new best friend. He's improving every race and his fractions for the last 1/4 mile last race were cheddah.
The pick$$$$$$.....
Win - Epicenter, it was always Epicenter
Place / Show - Taiba / Pioneer of Medina (love the odds - lets get rich)
The real play is to do a superfecta w these 3 and then pick your dogs. I'm keying epicenter up top by himself w taiba / pom / & maybe c knife w a few others down below....
Have fun and be safe. Uber's are everywhere. Use them.
Enough of that. On to the ponies.
Love everyone texting, emailing, sending pigeon carriers to ask me where the write up is. I shut down my day today to finish this so I can lose money and not make it $$$$ - venmo is open. But I am a adult child (man) of the people. That's the only joke Ill define for you, so keep up.
Weather - great day to be in the infield. I ran the numbers and 13 years from now, 54% of Kentucky males over the age of 18 will have seen their first boob at this derby. Facts people, don't hate the messenger. ITS A WOMAN'S BODY AND WHO AM I TO TELL THEM WHAT TO DO. SHOW "EM IF YOU GOT 'EM. But yes, high 80's, humidity is 83%, w a UV factor of 9 out of 10. Single guys going to derby, bring sunscreen. You will come home w more numbers than MurphMack at Gypsy Bar circa '06 - again venmo open.
Is anyone streaming the infield? We were fortunate to have this group MacMurchadha sponsor us this year. They would do the same deal w you, $0 but bring attention, and attention should be had on any and all infield cams...
PACE. PACE... PACE.....
tHE MurphDerby team has always been all about that pace, that pace... This year it is going to define the outcome. All the expected speed horses are on the outside. The horse we like is in the middle. You need a good trip in the Derby (not like D*#$RT at UNH circa 2002), the last horse to win the Derby that wasn't in at least in 3rd at the half mile mark was in 2014. W temps in the high 80's and it going off at 7pm, the track is going to be FASTer then - (EDITORS NOTE - we have removed and censored this portion of the blog - continue on). Churchill Downs is known for running fast on the inside, and my read is the speed on the outside is going to collapse on the inside pace on first turn - so the horses on the inside need to be at or ON the lead at the first turn.. All the prep races have had speed that Bill Murphy could run with, which makes the pace difficult to define because nobody really knows where its coming from - long way of saying, its a lot of fun this year because the pace is going to create a volatile situation of who is who and where they are.
If you want to make $ watch the early races, if #'s hit from inside consistently that's called a track bias, run with it.
Making a Fecal Delivery
1. Mo Donegal (10-1) – Hate to have to include him w an Amber Heard deuce reference, but he got the “heard” end of the stick in the post draw and has a deuce % of a chance at winning.
2. Happy Jack (30-1) – I know a jack that loves marble races and Russian car chases. Don’t know a happy jack so this is an easy no.
4. Summer is Tomorrow (30-1) Bhupat Seemar (trainer) – the name of the horse must be mistranslated because this is just an awful name – it’s the most pessimistic name ever in an optimist game. No thanks.
5. Smile Happy (20-1) – “smile happy” – is that something your pageant coach tells you? I want my horse not smiling, not being happy, ready to rip FOE’s heart out because they think they belong.
9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1) highest career earnings of any horse in the race - that doesn't matter, just wanted to prove to you I did some research on him.
14. Barber Road - I know a Barbaro and this ain't him. No town needs a road dedicated to barbers. Lets stop overcomplicating something Fred's Barbershop (derry, nh) figured out long ago. Its a flat top and move on.
17. Classic Causeway (infinity-1) Those odds are being given out by the MurphDerby sports book, so if anyone wants to place a bet my venmo is open. $1k minimum.
18. Tawny Port (30-1) Brad H. Cox - I love Lexington, ky - I haven't sued their little league team of stealing my M Stars name yet and rebranding N stars but my lawyers are still looking in to it.. In all seriousness, never go to the Derby, go visit Keeneland in Lexington or Saratoga in NY and you'll see why people love this sport. That being said, Keeneland (in Lexington) is the shittiest prep race and that's how T Port ended up here. Great trainer, pedigree, etc... If he didn't draw 18 he wouldn't be here. But if I wasn't born white male in USA, neither would I.
19. Zozos (20-1) Brad H. Cox - can this horse hit the board, yes. Can I get a six pack (abs), yes. Neither are happening.
20. Ethereal Road (30-1) - I did no research on this horse, but he's coming out of 20 hole, and has a name that just screams loser.
Pretenders
7. Crown Pride (20-1) coming over from UAE and contrary to the belief that $ solves problems (it does), it just doesn't solve winning the derby. Good horse, but not for me.
8. Charge It (who cares) free financial advice - but not from MacMurchadha - from my editor - the economy has some legs to run via consumer debt - charging. But unfortunately for my amigo here the derby dont work that way. Short this mo fo.
10. Zandon (3-1) - MurphDerby has to have a view. Its the only reason we do this for free. Zandon is going to be on your mother in law's ticket, your 3rd cousins ticket, everyone you despise, and for good reason - good horse for people that dont have a view. Price is going to be rich because he has an overrated trainer that is known for TURF horses. If he can bring Chad's special drink (like MJ in space jam) he might have a shot, but the authorities are watching this year and I don't see it.
13.Simplification (20-1) - Irad Ortiz is the jockey and a bad mamba jamba. He's the bully on the playground and you can never rule him out. Simp ran an underwhelming race last time out and should have long odds that I don't hate. I just like other things a little more. Don't yell at me if he hits - this is a free service - and if you haven't had 4-5 good laughs by now you are hopeless anyways...
15.White Abarrio (10-1) - The Scalabrine of the KY Derby. If it aint white it aint right - am I right? Grow up, he ain't winning. If he drew inside of 13 maybe - but he has too much speed on his inside.
16. Cyberknife (20-1) - if there is one horse I hold the right to change my opinion on its this hombre. WHAT A FUCKN NAME!!!! People have called me Murph Diesel, Murph $$$, Murphinator, Boomerang, Captain Tornado - to name a few - but I'd give them all up to be called Cyberknife. Its going to be hot, the big pageantry is going to put the horses in the sun for lord knows how long - will that impact the race - god knows and he told me no, but Cyberknife dont care - we dont even know if he lives in the dark web or the metaverse. He won't win.
Contenders
3. Epicenter (3-1) This guy could play for Jakes Autobody. Big story here is going to be Asmussen, trainer, is the all time $$$ winner (trainer) in North America and has never won derby. Maybe because from the little I know he does it the right way? Maybe he has a great process / firm where he can manage more horses? I don't know but he seems like a guy my uncle frank can have a beer with. When I am in 'toga at Siros late LATE night hes respected. Lets put the sentimental behind because we are here to win $$$$. Epicenter is an f'n beast - to steal an adjective from a friend. He's bigger, stronger, and has th%$**** (editors note - we had to remove Bill's use of the english language to describe the size of a male body part). - Bill's note - I publish this so F my editor. He has a hog. He's the big swinging dick in the glue factory and he knows it. Field of 20 horses, you are going to be banging and neighing trash. You need confidence and to be the alpha.
6. Messier (6-1) - He has johnny v riding him and johhny v has won 3 of last 5 derby's (baffert horses)- hes one of the best. He's being trained by Yakteen - who is Baffert's assistant - insert confused emoji. Oddly he has some of the best speed figures. Is it training (can't say baffert isn't a good trainer)? Is it just a great horse? Or is it something else. Last year Medina put up a 108 beyer for all 6 splits - never happens - normally you get 4/6 in that range to win. People are going to bid him up because its baffert / johnny V. If he goes off 10-1 I'll play, but wont touch at anything south of 8.
11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1) Me and his old man go way back. You can tell bill murphy you don't like his hair cut, he can't dance for $hit, but you can't tell him he's not loyal. Me and his old man made $$$, had some laughs, and I am going to use MurphDerby to will him to run his best on Saturday. Might not be enough, but he's improving, lightly raced, has the pedigree for this, GREAT post, and if he's anywhere near 30-1 hammer and I mean HAMMER him for place / show.
12. Taiba (12-1) - his odds should come in aggressively. If he's near 12-1 he gets the bill murphy 5 start diamond platinum bet for place / show - never been used before. The knock on him is thinly raced... people hated on justify because he was thinly raced as well - go back to my write up on him - called him winning triple crown a month before derby AND HE DID. Taiba isn't that good, but at 12-1 he's my new best friend. He's improving every race and his fractions for the last 1/4 mile last race were cheddah.
The pick$$$$$$.....
Win - Epicenter, it was always Epicenter
Place / Show - Taiba / Pioneer of Medina (love the odds - lets get rich)
The real play is to do a superfecta w these 3 and then pick your dogs. I'm keying epicenter up top by himself w taiba / pom / & maybe c knife w a few others down below....
Have fun and be safe. Uber's are everywhere. Use them.