2008 Murph Derby Analysis:
Editors note: I have hit the exacta the last 2 years for the derby, but I do remain winless in over 20 bets at keeneland. I only bet exotics, exacta’s, tri’s, and super’s so it is tougher, but you figure I would get a bone sooner or later. So as I may sound like I know what I am doing, it’s a crap shoot and that’s why I love it.
I never bet favorites as I like the odds because I don’t just want to win I want to retire in Malibu with my winnings, but this year I absolutely loved big brown. Had a HUGE win in the florida derby and stretched it out the extra ¼ of a mile after his win to prepare for the 1 ¼ mile derby with no problem. But he drew the 20 post, that adds distance to his run and with the morning odds at 3-1 I will not be touching it. This is a good thing in my opinion because it makes everyone else’s odds play better.
Churchill downs has the capability to run quick on the inside. Pay attention to the morning races and see if low numbers are in the money, if they are I suggest looking in that direction. I really really like court vision at 20-1, garret Gomez is riding him (2nd in earnings this year) and that’s going to pay dividends with the weather. I also like anak nakal going off at 30-1, zito is one of the biggest most popular trainers and knows what he’s doing. He is being ridden by bejarano, he’s in the money 54% of the time…. That’s good.
You have to respect pyro and colonel john coming out of the 9 / 10 gates respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised if colonel john is the favorite come derby time and with a name like pyro how can you not be excited by him. If they don’t get caught up in the early pace they will be finishing strong.
Visionaire is being trained by barbaro’s trainer and this is his only horse in the derby this year, so he gets all the attention. He is being ridden by jose lezcano, never heard of him and for good reason, 26th in earnings 30% in the money. Not impressive but any relation to barbaro has me excited.
The big and big is an understatement is the weather. forecast is scattered thunderstorms. If the track gets messy all this nonsense is useless and someone make sure I don’t go crazy at the window. 05 was the last time it rained and little unknown giacamo slugged through the mud to win at 50-1. I haven’t researched who’s spire’s were mudders but someone will do that and I will read it and if you are nice I’ll pass that along. Another thing to look at that I haven’t yet is which jockey’s have ridden their horses before and how they did. When looking at times, keeneland and Hollywood are polytrack surfaces and those run slowers so keep that in mind.
Look forward to Saturday and being a degenerate all day long. Here are my picks as of today, subject to change:
Colonel john
Court vision
Visionare
Editors note: I have hit the exacta the last 2 years for the derby, but I do remain winless in over 20 bets at keeneland. I only bet exotics, exacta’s, tri’s, and super’s so it is tougher, but you figure I would get a bone sooner or later. So as I may sound like I know what I am doing, it’s a crap shoot and that’s why I love it.
I never bet favorites as I like the odds because I don’t just want to win I want to retire in Malibu with my winnings, but this year I absolutely loved big brown. Had a HUGE win in the florida derby and stretched it out the extra ¼ of a mile after his win to prepare for the 1 ¼ mile derby with no problem. But he drew the 20 post, that adds distance to his run and with the morning odds at 3-1 I will not be touching it. This is a good thing in my opinion because it makes everyone else’s odds play better.
Churchill downs has the capability to run quick on the inside. Pay attention to the morning races and see if low numbers are in the money, if they are I suggest looking in that direction. I really really like court vision at 20-1, garret Gomez is riding him (2nd in earnings this year) and that’s going to pay dividends with the weather. I also like anak nakal going off at 30-1, zito is one of the biggest most popular trainers and knows what he’s doing. He is being ridden by bejarano, he’s in the money 54% of the time…. That’s good.
You have to respect pyro and colonel john coming out of the 9 / 10 gates respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised if colonel john is the favorite come derby time and with a name like pyro how can you not be excited by him. If they don’t get caught up in the early pace they will be finishing strong.
Visionaire is being trained by barbaro’s trainer and this is his only horse in the derby this year, so he gets all the attention. He is being ridden by jose lezcano, never heard of him and for good reason, 26th in earnings 30% in the money. Not impressive but any relation to barbaro has me excited.
The big and big is an understatement is the weather. forecast is scattered thunderstorms. If the track gets messy all this nonsense is useless and someone make sure I don’t go crazy at the window. 05 was the last time it rained and little unknown giacamo slugged through the mud to win at 50-1. I haven’t researched who’s spire’s were mudders but someone will do that and I will read it and if you are nice I’ll pass that along. Another thing to look at that I haven’t yet is which jockey’s have ridden their horses before and how they did. When looking at times, keeneland and Hollywood are polytrack surfaces and those run slowers so keep that in mind.
Look forward to Saturday and being a degenerate all day long. Here are my picks as of today, subject to change:
Colonel john
Court vision
Visionare