2019 Murph Derby Analysis: Welcome to the 14th annual KY Derby Writeup Extravaganza presented to you by MacMurchadha Advisors. Last year was easy money. And I’m not going to praise myself for picking Justify, but I will take a victory lap for saying pre-Derby he’d win Triple. That was a virtual lap and not a physical one. Consider yourself lucky to be on this email and feel free to bring yourself karma by forwarding this around as we will need all the karma in the world this year. This is by far most the most difficult Derby in years to handicap. Not only is there no less than 10 horses that can win but the pace is highly unpredictable. I have doubled the hours spent on analyzing video footage and hired 3 different horse whisperers just so I can make you $$$$. Not all heroes wear a cape but I do. Editors Note: I do not take in to consideration the weather. As my good friend Outkast says, “you can plan a pretty picnic, but you can’t predict the weather”. Currently weather.com who won’t plan a picnic but will predict the weather is predicting 90% chance of rain. Grab yourself a bourbon and buckle up. Losers Country House (20) 30:1 – I am a city apartment type of guy Plus Que Parfait (9) 30:1 - I don’t think anyone has ever eaten a parfait in Kentucky. Cutting Humor (10) 30:1 - Whatever. Gray Magician (4) 50:1 - This guy’s best trick is pulling quarters behind your ear. He’s not good. Master Fencer (15) 50:1 - This homey has a great balestra lunge but that won’t help him on Saturday Pretenders War of Will (1) 20:1 - Big time runner as a 2 year old. Laid a dud in LA derby and came up injured. Hasn’t raced since and was someone I had my beautiful irish brown eyes on. But he is in the 1 post and that’s enough said. Code of Honor (13) 15:1 – I am a big time honor guy. Constant honor roll in the days of Derry Village and Gilbert H Hood Middle School – go Huskies. Even hit the high honor board a few times – true story. Good enough horse but should be well off pace and won’t have enough to make it interesting. Haikal (11) 30:1 – Definition of Haikal: a sanctuary of a Coptic church cut off from the nave by a screen and containing three altars. Translating that to English it means he’s a deep closer and won’t have a shot. Long Range Toddy (18) 30:1 – I keep going back and forth on LRT. Who doesn’t love a good Toddy. Final conclusion is that he’s just not that good and coming from 18 does him no favors. Ran to front in Rebel (2) to pull down a W and then was no show in Arkansas. Pass. . Throw Away Favorites Game Winner (16) 5:1 - It’s been well documented that I love winners. No horse has given me a harder time than this guy. He looks good but never good enough. Had a terrible trip in a 6 field San Anita Derby – not even sure how that is possible. If the Rebel had the extra 1/8 of a mile that the Derby has he beats favored horse Omaha Beach. Too expensive at 5:1. If he goes comes down to 8/10:1 maybe. Roadster (17) 6:1 – If I were a horse I think we’d be friends. Just so I could say things like “Yo Roadster” or “Me and Roadster”. He’s a Baffort horse who won a very sad small fielded San Anita Derby. At 6:1 I’ll lose my cash elsewhere. Improbable (5) 6:1 - Baffort horse. Ran a game 2nd to Omaha Beach in Arkansas Derby and was beat by Long Range Toddy in Rebel 2. I like winners. 6:1 is a very expensive price for a horse that prefers to be first loser. Omaha Beach (12) 4:1 – Want to be zombie face by post time? Take a shot every time they mention Mike Smith choose O Beach over Roadster on Saturday. Good horse? Sure. He’s not Justify. Not even close. He’s either going to sprint to lead out of 12 gate or be 4 wide in to first turn and be smoked down the stretch. At 4:1 you can have him. **If it rains and track is slop I hold the right to change my view and use him on my ticket Did I just throw away the three Baffort horses? Yes, yes I did. Value Plays Spinoff (19) 30:1 - I love a good corporate event. Don’t like him coming out of 19, but my homeboy is lightly run and has increased his speed figure in every race. Lost a competitive race in LA Derby and has had a nice break from live competition to focus on training. At 30:1 he can hit the board and juice your ticket up like he’s Canelo Alvarez (win $$$ in Derby and take Jacobs). Tax (2), 20:1 – What mad man would name his horse Tax? Was I Heart IRS already taken? Grow up. Ran a strong 2nd in Wood w a stalking pace and great trip. With 2 post his trip is going to be what defines him on Saturday. Should he be able to be on pace he can hit board and give you a nice payout. Inside can be fast and play well at Churchill. Will I use him? Unsure, but if I don’t it won’t be first / last time Tax(es) ruin my day. Win Win Win (14) 15:1 – Inspired by T Pain this horse is best closer in the field. His name is confusing as all he doesn’t do is Win Win Win, but he does come in third, third, third. I don’t think this race favors closers, but if the pace is faster than most expect he could sneak his little nose in to a payday. If ¾ mark is in sub 1:12 than it sets him up for a run. Team Murphy This is why I do what I do. You have to have a set of kahunas to print this ticket. Some lack pedigree, some lack experience, but the value here reminds me of when Walmart was Walmart and you could buy 3 snickers bars for a dollar. You knew it wouldn’t last. Vekoma (6) 20:1 - These odds make no sense to me. This bro ran from back in a very fast Fountain of Youth in his lone defeat (ran 3rd) and then was back on lead at Blue Grass w jockey change to Castellano. If he’s on pace from the start he will make some noise. He did pull to the right down stretch of BlueGrass so we would like to see better form on Saturday. Tacitus (8) 10:1 – Tacitus is considered to be one of the greatest Roman historians. Love history. This horse isn’t a history nerd though. He’s more Roman gladiator. Not afraid of traffic and he will punch any horse that gets in his way. He is a Tapit horse who has been improving ever race. Love him in the 8 post. I have a hard time seeing him staying at 10:1 but if he does he needs to be hammered in all your exotics. By My Standards (3) 20:1 – The Murphy Standard is set by a philosophy of constant improvement. This animal has improved every race, big move and had a big move in traffic to win the LA Derby. Has had 6 weeks to train / improve / make people forget about him. He has been getting a lot of press for great training this week, so that could impact his odds, but even at 15/12:1 I am a player. . THE PICK . Maximum Security (7) 10:1 – He should be pace horse, but don’t look to him to set a blazing pace, but do look for him to be in front. If he is left alone going in to the second turn then light the cigar or whatever is legal in your state. HE HASN’T LOST. HAS THE BEST TIME AT A MILE AND AN EIGHTH. He was so far ahead in Florida Derby his jockey was patting him good job rather than hitting him with the whip. I don’t play the win bet often but if he’s at 10:1 a huge win / place bet is in order. Win: Maximum Security Place: Vekoma Show: By My Standard ***Again if it is raining / slop then I will be using Omaha Beach. |