2010 Murph Derby Analysis:
1.Lookin at Lucky (3/1 odds) – wont wear his blinkers, garret Gomez, 3rd at santa anita
2. Ice Box (10/1) - true closer, florida derby winner, has run distance, fast pace should get a good spot on raile,
3. Noble’s Promise (12/1) runs 2nd to lookin at lucky, hurt after Arkansas, 2nd rate trainer and jockey, ran aggressive 2 year old schedule, closer
4. Super Saver (15/1) – speed, good slop horse, 2nd in ark derb, 3rd in tampa, jockey borel, has won at chuchill, consistent speed at 99, 99, 100, rode mine that bird last year,
5. Line of David (30/1) - second race on dirt, won Arkansas derby
6. Stately Victor (30/1) won at keeneland, closer, horrible on dirt,
7. American Lion (30/1) – Illinois derby winner, son of king tiznow horse of year and 2 time breeder’s cup classic winner, pace horse
8. Dean’s Kitten (50/1) - turf hourse
9. Make Music For Me (50/1) - woman trainer, jockey’s first appearance in derby
10. Paddy O’Prado (20/1) – training really well, ran great in slop in training, ran 7th in slop last year, then ran 4 races on turf, 19th on earnings list
11. Devil May Care (10/1) – adding blinkers, philly, racing with eskendeereya out
12. Conveyance (12/1) – owned by the sheikh ruler of dubai, pace horse,
13. Jackson Bend (15/1) – mike smith won with giacamo last time in mud, pace horse, runner up 3 times,
14. Mission Impazible (20/1) - improved each race, decent dirt horse, closer, won Louisiana derby
15. Discreetly Mine (30/1) – wears down late, worst race in mud, pace horse
16. Awesome Act (10/1) – trainer has been absent due to volcano, can run in traffic, late kick, third in wood behind eskendereya, mudder
17. Dublin (12/1) – throws jockeys, couldn’t finish training session, weakened at 1 1/6,
18. Backtalk (50/1) – pedigree of smarty jones, affirmed, has won twice at churchill then raced at keeneland finishing 8th, not great speed, if weather is bad play odds
19. Homeboykris (55/1) – best known for finishing second to radiohead consistently, joe torre owner
20. Sidney’s Candy (5/1) – brother of chocolate candy, won santa anita, jockey talamo 1st derby race, trainer john sadler, 3 win’s in /10, 99spd last race best of ’10 and longest at 1 1/8, owner jenny craig
So who will win?
1 - AWESOME ACT has excellent off-track breeding being sired by Awesome Again, whose offspring have won 19% of the time in muddy conditions. Five of the six colts to his immediate left from Post 16 have early speed and will clear out allowing him to settle into a a great trip with his perfect stalking style.
Awesome Act was sent off as a clear second-choice to Eskendereya in the Wood and indeed if that ill-fated colt was the best, would not Awesome be second best? Added to that fact is that Awesome Act stumbled coming out of the gate, knocking one of his horseshoes off and ran an amazing race with only three shoes on while going wide.and still place third.
In his prior start, Awesome Act ran into traffic (a likely possibility in the Derby), shook clear and won with ease. There are few better judges of pace than his rider, Julian Leparoux. And his trainer, Jeremy Noseda, while handling just a few horses, has excellent winning stats.
But the most important thing in picking any Derby winner is having the pedigree to go 1 1/4 miles. Awesome Act has that.
2 - ICE BOX rallied from last to first to win the key Florida Derby prep by a nose at 20-1. At first glance, you might think his late-closing style will be a hindrance against a bulky field of 20, and that might be the case, but the abundance of speed in the race sets it up for a deep closer.
Digging a little deeper, statistics reveal the Nick Zito-trained colt has a real chance. His sire, Pulpit, has sent offspring into the winner's circle 18% of the time, and produced AWD (average winning distance) winners of 7.7 furlongs, slightly better than Awesome Again, a pedigree that screams for distance.
And the ever wise-Zito pushed the colt into a rapid 46.2, 4-furlong workout (the best of 28) a week ago to put more early speed into his chances. He has won three of his last four races, losing only when he broke slowly and was caught five wide.
3 - SUPER SAVER has become worth a second-look with the red-hot Calvin Borel scheduled to ride for Todd Pletcher. Borel has started the Churchill Downs meet red-hot winning with 47% of his mounts victory, drew inside where he can skim the rail, a tactic he used to bring home 50-1 Mine That Byrd in the mud in the Derby last year.
But the colt also has the right credentials to be in the hunt. He is only one of there in the field to have won over a muddy track and one of only two to have won at Churchill Downs. Despite his early speed that could get into trouble, he has the ability to lay off the pace and breeding to get the distance, both on his sire's and dam's side.
4 - Despite Post 20, SIDNEY'S CANDY may be the best colt in the race, but must overcome that far outside post. He trounced Derby-favorite Looking at Lucky, who had to be steadied and was blocked in the Santa Anita Derby, for his third straight victory this year and had more than enough left to hit the wire ahead of the late-closing Setsuko. Jockey Joe Talamo will try to clear most of the field early and attempt to rate the morning-line second choice behind the early speed.
Sidney's Candy also has a superior mud rating, but has never raced on a dirt or a wet track and will be in trouble if he gets hooked into a speed duel.
1.Lookin at Lucky (3/1 odds) – wont wear his blinkers, garret Gomez, 3rd at santa anita
2. Ice Box (10/1) - true closer, florida derby winner, has run distance, fast pace should get a good spot on raile,
3. Noble’s Promise (12/1) runs 2nd to lookin at lucky, hurt after Arkansas, 2nd rate trainer and jockey, ran aggressive 2 year old schedule, closer
4. Super Saver (15/1) – speed, good slop horse, 2nd in ark derb, 3rd in tampa, jockey borel, has won at chuchill, consistent speed at 99, 99, 100, rode mine that bird last year,
5. Line of David (30/1) - second race on dirt, won Arkansas derby
6. Stately Victor (30/1) won at keeneland, closer, horrible on dirt,
7. American Lion (30/1) – Illinois derby winner, son of king tiznow horse of year and 2 time breeder’s cup classic winner, pace horse
8. Dean’s Kitten (50/1) - turf hourse
9. Make Music For Me (50/1) - woman trainer, jockey’s first appearance in derby
10. Paddy O’Prado (20/1) – training really well, ran great in slop in training, ran 7th in slop last year, then ran 4 races on turf, 19th on earnings list
11. Devil May Care (10/1) – adding blinkers, philly, racing with eskendeereya out
12. Conveyance (12/1) – owned by the sheikh ruler of dubai, pace horse,
13. Jackson Bend (15/1) – mike smith won with giacamo last time in mud, pace horse, runner up 3 times,
14. Mission Impazible (20/1) - improved each race, decent dirt horse, closer, won Louisiana derby
15. Discreetly Mine (30/1) – wears down late, worst race in mud, pace horse
16. Awesome Act (10/1) – trainer has been absent due to volcano, can run in traffic, late kick, third in wood behind eskendereya, mudder
17. Dublin (12/1) – throws jockeys, couldn’t finish training session, weakened at 1 1/6,
18. Backtalk (50/1) – pedigree of smarty jones, affirmed, has won twice at churchill then raced at keeneland finishing 8th, not great speed, if weather is bad play odds
19. Homeboykris (55/1) – best known for finishing second to radiohead consistently, joe torre owner
20. Sidney’s Candy (5/1) – brother of chocolate candy, won santa anita, jockey talamo 1st derby race, trainer john sadler, 3 win’s in /10, 99spd last race best of ’10 and longest at 1 1/8, owner jenny craig
So who will win?
1 - AWESOME ACT has excellent off-track breeding being sired by Awesome Again, whose offspring have won 19% of the time in muddy conditions. Five of the six colts to his immediate left from Post 16 have early speed and will clear out allowing him to settle into a a great trip with his perfect stalking style.
Awesome Act was sent off as a clear second-choice to Eskendereya in the Wood and indeed if that ill-fated colt was the best, would not Awesome be second best? Added to that fact is that Awesome Act stumbled coming out of the gate, knocking one of his horseshoes off and ran an amazing race with only three shoes on while going wide.and still place third.
In his prior start, Awesome Act ran into traffic (a likely possibility in the Derby), shook clear and won with ease. There are few better judges of pace than his rider, Julian Leparoux. And his trainer, Jeremy Noseda, while handling just a few horses, has excellent winning stats.
But the most important thing in picking any Derby winner is having the pedigree to go 1 1/4 miles. Awesome Act has that.
2 - ICE BOX rallied from last to first to win the key Florida Derby prep by a nose at 20-1. At first glance, you might think his late-closing style will be a hindrance against a bulky field of 20, and that might be the case, but the abundance of speed in the race sets it up for a deep closer.
Digging a little deeper, statistics reveal the Nick Zito-trained colt has a real chance. His sire, Pulpit, has sent offspring into the winner's circle 18% of the time, and produced AWD (average winning distance) winners of 7.7 furlongs, slightly better than Awesome Again, a pedigree that screams for distance.
And the ever wise-Zito pushed the colt into a rapid 46.2, 4-furlong workout (the best of 28) a week ago to put more early speed into his chances. He has won three of his last four races, losing only when he broke slowly and was caught five wide.
3 - SUPER SAVER has become worth a second-look with the red-hot Calvin Borel scheduled to ride for Todd Pletcher. Borel has started the Churchill Downs meet red-hot winning with 47% of his mounts victory, drew inside where he can skim the rail, a tactic he used to bring home 50-1 Mine That Byrd in the mud in the Derby last year.
But the colt also has the right credentials to be in the hunt. He is only one of there in the field to have won over a muddy track and one of only two to have won at Churchill Downs. Despite his early speed that could get into trouble, he has the ability to lay off the pace and breeding to get the distance, both on his sire's and dam's side.
4 - Despite Post 20, SIDNEY'S CANDY may be the best colt in the race, but must overcome that far outside post. He trounced Derby-favorite Looking at Lucky, who had to be steadied and was blocked in the Santa Anita Derby, for his third straight victory this year and had more than enough left to hit the wire ahead of the late-closing Setsuko. Jockey Joe Talamo will try to clear most of the field early and attempt to rate the morning-line second choice behind the early speed.
Sidney's Candy also has a superior mud rating, but has never raced on a dirt or a wet track and will be in trouble if he gets hooked into a speed duel.