2016 Murphy Derby Analysis:
I should be out celebrating Cinco De Murph'O but am I am a god damn man of the people working hard to make you rich.
Going to be a gorgeous sunny 85 degree day in LouieVille. Track will be fast and if the inside numbers are hitting early in the day – adjust picks accordingly. Field is deep with Riveras (closers) but the track should favor horses that stalk the pace and then have enough jive left to kick to finish. When the dust has settled the closers are going be wondering what the hell just happened like its ’04.
Everyone knows I’m an odds guy. Down at Rockingham Park they say there goes Odds Man Murphy. This year is different. This year I think there is only one horse. To make it worth your time to cash a ticket - big cheddar on show and place & you have to get gnarly with your trifectas... Let's get gnarly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL1UzIK-flA
You are welcome.
Throw Aways - DO NOT BET
Tojan Nation – 2nd at wood in a field of losers, happy to be here. Team No Rubbah.
Majeso – Not a winner. I only hang with winners.
My Man Sam – Late kick, be too far back, not enough talent
Whitmore 3rd in Arkansas derby, extra distance will be problem
Shagaf - SLOW
Oscar Nominated <----- He has that going for him
Mor Spirit – 17th slot, just don’t see it. Not now / not ever.
Lani – From Japan. Don’t like the exchange rate. Short Lani.
Will Here Name Early - Not a Good Thing
Danzing Candy - San Felipe winner - just shipped a day or two ago. Will be drunkest girl at party and pass out at 8, but will make it be known he is in the house early.
Outwork – Son of Uncle Mo, wood winner, perfect trip – ran to front – no class in field, Pletcher horse, jumped to lead in Tampa – will be partying with Danzin Candy for the pace from outside. Passed out by 8:05.
BET AT YOUR OWN RISK
Tom’s Ready - One win in 9 races. Placed 2nd in LA derby to Gun Runner. Had some fight… Showed some speed… I don’t want to move the market here but if odds are there on Saturday we could be getting Gnarly w Tom #FreeBrady.
Suddenbreakingnews 2nd in Arkansas derby. Tried grass (to run on) and didn’t like it – he’s one of them. Often hits the board but will struggle out of the 2 hole.
PRETENDERS
Exaggerator - Won Santa Anita in mud, benefitted from Danzin Candy tiring everyone out. Getting a lot of love at 8-1. Just not impressed. Track will be too fast and field to strong – it’s a field of murphys. Gets a good trip could hit board and I won’t be happy because won’t be on my ticket. That being said with a name like that he could work for my bank any day.
Gun Runner - LA Derby winner, perfect trip, had good late kick, stalked pace, and showed tactical speed. Will need a good trip around first turn to properly position self. LA derby winner hasn’t won in 20 years and only a 91 beyer to win LA. Getting a lot of love so don’t like the value.
Mohaymen – Nyquist took down in LF derby – Mohaymen was the hometown favorite and got shoved in to a locker. He got stuck 3 wide whole trip and nothing left at the end. Think Murphy at a bachelor party.
WARREN FROM OMAHA PICKS aka VALUE
Brody’s Cause, won bluegrass, good workout this week, third in juvey to nyquist, 7th place in tampa, big closer – fast track play to this style. Coming out of 19th. Straight cheddahhh.
Tom’s Ready - One win in 9 races. 2nd in LA derby to Gun Runner. Had some fight… Showed some speed… I don’t want to move the market here but if odds are there on Saturday this could pay properly to be used to show.
Mo Tom – Son of my homeboy Uncle MO, lost last two races to Gun Runner, and finished 4th place most recently at LA derby. Terrible trip by jockey (Lanerie) and trainer lit him up - no clue how he is still jockey. He admitted he had “more horse than I knew what to do with”. Will have enough to chase pace and kick late. Will be on the inside if can get a good trip around rail will pay properly. Hopefully lesson learned? Fool me twice?? This is why it’s called gambling folks.
Creator - Best of the closers - won Arkansas derby but it was a field of nobody’s, 2nd every other shitty race, fast race closed from deep, cupid was heavy fav and chased fast pace able to close on weak field. Fought for positioning and had fight. Won’t mind some bumping early and think can get good position on inside. Most interested to see where odds are here on Saturday. This is serious shit folks. No joke here.
WINNER IS ----
Nyquist - It's no secret that Uncle Murph loves Uncle Mo. 4 years ago I was exploring New York when I happened to stumble upon a horse named Uncle Mo at Belmont - or I went there just to see him. Was love at first site. Nyquist is the best of the first vintage year from Uncle Mo and he has won 4 Grade 1 staked races - perspective - the rest of the field of 19 has 6 grade 1 wins COMBINED. Last year he warmed the winners circle up for American Pharoah with an impressive win at the Breeder’s Cup Juvey. Was bumped hard early and often and and showed the Larry Bird fight to win. This year hasn't slowed down and traveled to Gulf Stream to beat up Mohaymen on his home track to win the Florida Derby. Has won with great trips, out in front, and getting smashed from all angles. Hammer him big on the ticket to win and hope for odds at #2 & #3.
THE FINISH
Win: Nyquist
Place: Creator
Show: MoTom - (bias towards Uncle Mo)
I should be out celebrating Cinco De Murph'O but am I am a god damn man of the people working hard to make you rich.
Going to be a gorgeous sunny 85 degree day in LouieVille. Track will be fast and if the inside numbers are hitting early in the day – adjust picks accordingly. Field is deep with Riveras (closers) but the track should favor horses that stalk the pace and then have enough jive left to kick to finish. When the dust has settled the closers are going be wondering what the hell just happened like its ’04.
Everyone knows I’m an odds guy. Down at Rockingham Park they say there goes Odds Man Murphy. This year is different. This year I think there is only one horse. To make it worth your time to cash a ticket - big cheddar on show and place & you have to get gnarly with your trifectas... Let's get gnarly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL1UzIK-flA
You are welcome.
Throw Aways - DO NOT BET
Tojan Nation – 2nd at wood in a field of losers, happy to be here. Team No Rubbah.
Majeso – Not a winner. I only hang with winners.
My Man Sam – Late kick, be too far back, not enough talent
Whitmore 3rd in Arkansas derby, extra distance will be problem
Shagaf - SLOW
Oscar Nominated <----- He has that going for him
Mor Spirit – 17th slot, just don’t see it. Not now / not ever.
Lani – From Japan. Don’t like the exchange rate. Short Lani.
Will Here Name Early - Not a Good Thing
Danzing Candy - San Felipe winner - just shipped a day or two ago. Will be drunkest girl at party and pass out at 8, but will make it be known he is in the house early.
Outwork – Son of Uncle Mo, wood winner, perfect trip – ran to front – no class in field, Pletcher horse, jumped to lead in Tampa – will be partying with Danzin Candy for the pace from outside. Passed out by 8:05.
BET AT YOUR OWN RISK
Tom’s Ready - One win in 9 races. Placed 2nd in LA derby to Gun Runner. Had some fight… Showed some speed… I don’t want to move the market here but if odds are there on Saturday we could be getting Gnarly w Tom #FreeBrady.
Suddenbreakingnews 2nd in Arkansas derby. Tried grass (to run on) and didn’t like it – he’s one of them. Often hits the board but will struggle out of the 2 hole.
PRETENDERS
Exaggerator - Won Santa Anita in mud, benefitted from Danzin Candy tiring everyone out. Getting a lot of love at 8-1. Just not impressed. Track will be too fast and field to strong – it’s a field of murphys. Gets a good trip could hit board and I won’t be happy because won’t be on my ticket. That being said with a name like that he could work for my bank any day.
Gun Runner - LA Derby winner, perfect trip, had good late kick, stalked pace, and showed tactical speed. Will need a good trip around first turn to properly position self. LA derby winner hasn’t won in 20 years and only a 91 beyer to win LA. Getting a lot of love so don’t like the value.
Mohaymen – Nyquist took down in LF derby – Mohaymen was the hometown favorite and got shoved in to a locker. He got stuck 3 wide whole trip and nothing left at the end. Think Murphy at a bachelor party.
WARREN FROM OMAHA PICKS aka VALUE
Brody’s Cause, won bluegrass, good workout this week, third in juvey to nyquist, 7th place in tampa, big closer – fast track play to this style. Coming out of 19th. Straight cheddahhh.
Tom’s Ready - One win in 9 races. 2nd in LA derby to Gun Runner. Had some fight… Showed some speed… I don’t want to move the market here but if odds are there on Saturday this could pay properly to be used to show.
Mo Tom – Son of my homeboy Uncle MO, lost last two races to Gun Runner, and finished 4th place most recently at LA derby. Terrible trip by jockey (Lanerie) and trainer lit him up - no clue how he is still jockey. He admitted he had “more horse than I knew what to do with”. Will have enough to chase pace and kick late. Will be on the inside if can get a good trip around rail will pay properly. Hopefully lesson learned? Fool me twice?? This is why it’s called gambling folks.
Creator - Best of the closers - won Arkansas derby but it was a field of nobody’s, 2nd every other shitty race, fast race closed from deep, cupid was heavy fav and chased fast pace able to close on weak field. Fought for positioning and had fight. Won’t mind some bumping early and think can get good position on inside. Most interested to see where odds are here on Saturday. This is serious shit folks. No joke here.
WINNER IS ----
Nyquist - It's no secret that Uncle Murph loves Uncle Mo. 4 years ago I was exploring New York when I happened to stumble upon a horse named Uncle Mo at Belmont - or I went there just to see him. Was love at first site. Nyquist is the best of the first vintage year from Uncle Mo and he has won 4 Grade 1 staked races - perspective - the rest of the field of 19 has 6 grade 1 wins COMBINED. Last year he warmed the winners circle up for American Pharoah with an impressive win at the Breeder’s Cup Juvey. Was bumped hard early and often and and showed the Larry Bird fight to win. This year hasn't slowed down and traveled to Gulf Stream to beat up Mohaymen on his home track to win the Florida Derby. Has won with great trips, out in front, and getting smashed from all angles. Hammer him big on the ticket to win and hope for odds at #2 & #3.
THE FINISH
Win: Nyquist
Place: Creator
Show: MoTom - (bias towards Uncle Mo)