2014 Murph Derby Analysis:
Throw Aways
11. Hoppertunity (6-1) SCRATCHED
7. We Miss Artie (50-1) – Hates dirt. Don’t blame him.
10. Wildcat Red (15-1) – Will set pace. Not a good thing.
2. Harry’s Holiday (50-1) – Don’t know any Harry’s.
16. Intense Holiday (8-1) – Friend of Harry?
1. Vicar’s In Trouble (20-1) – Likes running in lead. Will get boxed in against post. Sucks for him.
3. Uncle Sigh (30-1) – Uncle Murph thinks he doesn’t stand a chance.
8. General A Rod (15-1) – Serious with the name?
17. Commanding Curve (50-1) – May be worth the odds, but I don’t know any respectable horses that command curves.
15. Tapiture (12-1) – Won at Churchill as a 2 year old. Never progressed – stuck in glory days.
Pretenders
13. Chitu (20-1) – Only a pretender for the pedigree. Speed and stamina - no relation to me.
19. Ride On Curlin (15-1) – Will get a lot of press because he is reuniting with jockey Calvin Borel. Borel is a beast of a jockey, but the ROC hasn’t won a race. Winners hang with winners and I am a winner.
20. Wicked Strong (6-1) Wanted to be rooting for this guy. Really wanted to. But he got the 20 post and with all of my cousins in Southie heading up to Suffolk Downs, and gambling their rent money away – the odds won’t be close to what he’s worth.
Looking forward to the montage’s that are certain to be the highlight of the pre-show.
Good but Not Great
5. California Chrome (5-2) – Beautiful horse that has dominated California all year, but as my good friend Mike Tyson always tells me – “everyone has a plan until they are punched in the mouth.” Well C Squared is the big time favorite and someone is going to punch him in the mouth in this field of 20. At those odds I’ll put my hard earned cheddar elsewhere. Plus never heard of California Strong.
6. Samraat (15-1) – Knows how to win. He could have played for Jake’s Auto Body. Got a good post, tough horse, but questionable pedigree. If goes off above 20-1 may be worth something and take my winnings to go do hood rat things with my samraat friends.
14. Medal Count (20-1) – Talented horse that has the ability to turn it on. Close and if the pace is fast could play out in his favor as he runs from the back. Worth the odds.
18. Candy Boy (15-1) – He came out swinging at C Squared in the Santa Anita. Be he ran wide the whole race and didn’t have the wind pipes to close it down. My uncle Sully tells me that a guy from work with a friend who’s got a “guy” that tell him he’s been training well all week.
9. Vinceremos (30-1) – Wanted to throw this bro out until I heard he is the son of my home horse Pioneer of da Nile. Terrible trip in the Blue Grass leading up to Derby, but has the stalk and late kick style that plays well for the Derby. At these odds and being in the middle of the pack he hits its worth cashing that ticket.
Master’s Ticket
California Chrome will get all the hype but betting him is a suckers play. If you want to brag that you picked winner put him in your ticket. If you want to win $$$$ and pop bottles with Uncle Murph be a man and take some odds. This is it folks. I am on a 2 year losing streak and am only giving you win and place this year. Still two days to go and I’ll respect you if you go with a couple of the boys in the good but not great section, but my ability to try and hit a home run is what makes me so unbelievably average at this. Without further a do – my picks.
Place
4. Danza (8-1) – I am going to be playing a drinking game and will be doing shots of Beam every time there is a Who’s the Boss reference. Big win at the Arkansas Derby – feel like the words Arkansas Derby screams reality show – he has received great reports from Churchill in the morning and is one of Pletcher’s 4 horses and he is vocal about Tony D. He can go the distance and is a tough horse. He will sit back if pace is fast and will have an easy ride along the rail to put himself in position to close it down.
Win aka cha ching
12. Dance With Fate (20-1) – Donald Sterling would hate this horse but lucky for you Uncle Murph is a progressive. Ran in California all year and then came out to visit my friends at Keeneland and did work, son. Comment section would tell me that he hasn’t won on dirt, only 21 days since Blue Grass, and not big time trainer. Uncle Murph would say that he dominated a 14 field horse in a ballsy performance at Blue Grass and ran it with a good stalk pace with a phenomenal finish. He wins and I take my winnings and will be popping bottles at 40/40 for Mayweather.
Blue Grass Win
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9viKDfdYFA
Throw Aways
11. Hoppertunity (6-1) SCRATCHED
7. We Miss Artie (50-1) – Hates dirt. Don’t blame him.
10. Wildcat Red (15-1) – Will set pace. Not a good thing.
2. Harry’s Holiday (50-1) – Don’t know any Harry’s.
16. Intense Holiday (8-1) – Friend of Harry?
1. Vicar’s In Trouble (20-1) – Likes running in lead. Will get boxed in against post. Sucks for him.
3. Uncle Sigh (30-1) – Uncle Murph thinks he doesn’t stand a chance.
8. General A Rod (15-1) – Serious with the name?
17. Commanding Curve (50-1) – May be worth the odds, but I don’t know any respectable horses that command curves.
15. Tapiture (12-1) – Won at Churchill as a 2 year old. Never progressed – stuck in glory days.
Pretenders
13. Chitu (20-1) – Only a pretender for the pedigree. Speed and stamina - no relation to me.
19. Ride On Curlin (15-1) – Will get a lot of press because he is reuniting with jockey Calvin Borel. Borel is a beast of a jockey, but the ROC hasn’t won a race. Winners hang with winners and I am a winner.
20. Wicked Strong (6-1) Wanted to be rooting for this guy. Really wanted to. But he got the 20 post and with all of my cousins in Southie heading up to Suffolk Downs, and gambling their rent money away – the odds won’t be close to what he’s worth.
Looking forward to the montage’s that are certain to be the highlight of the pre-show.
Good but Not Great
5. California Chrome (5-2) – Beautiful horse that has dominated California all year, but as my good friend Mike Tyson always tells me – “everyone has a plan until they are punched in the mouth.” Well C Squared is the big time favorite and someone is going to punch him in the mouth in this field of 20. At those odds I’ll put my hard earned cheddar elsewhere. Plus never heard of California Strong.
6. Samraat (15-1) – Knows how to win. He could have played for Jake’s Auto Body. Got a good post, tough horse, but questionable pedigree. If goes off above 20-1 may be worth something and take my winnings to go do hood rat things with my samraat friends.
14. Medal Count (20-1) – Talented horse that has the ability to turn it on. Close and if the pace is fast could play out in his favor as he runs from the back. Worth the odds.
18. Candy Boy (15-1) – He came out swinging at C Squared in the Santa Anita. Be he ran wide the whole race and didn’t have the wind pipes to close it down. My uncle Sully tells me that a guy from work with a friend who’s got a “guy” that tell him he’s been training well all week.
9. Vinceremos (30-1) – Wanted to throw this bro out until I heard he is the son of my home horse Pioneer of da Nile. Terrible trip in the Blue Grass leading up to Derby, but has the stalk and late kick style that plays well for the Derby. At these odds and being in the middle of the pack he hits its worth cashing that ticket.
Master’s Ticket
California Chrome will get all the hype but betting him is a suckers play. If you want to brag that you picked winner put him in your ticket. If you want to win $$$$ and pop bottles with Uncle Murph be a man and take some odds. This is it folks. I am on a 2 year losing streak and am only giving you win and place this year. Still two days to go and I’ll respect you if you go with a couple of the boys in the good but not great section, but my ability to try and hit a home run is what makes me so unbelievably average at this. Without further a do – my picks.
Place
4. Danza (8-1) – I am going to be playing a drinking game and will be doing shots of Beam every time there is a Who’s the Boss reference. Big win at the Arkansas Derby – feel like the words Arkansas Derby screams reality show – he has received great reports from Churchill in the morning and is one of Pletcher’s 4 horses and he is vocal about Tony D. He can go the distance and is a tough horse. He will sit back if pace is fast and will have an easy ride along the rail to put himself in position to close it down.
Win aka cha ching
12. Dance With Fate (20-1) – Donald Sterling would hate this horse but lucky for you Uncle Murph is a progressive. Ran in California all year and then came out to visit my friends at Keeneland and did work, son. Comment section would tell me that he hasn’t won on dirt, only 21 days since Blue Grass, and not big time trainer. Uncle Murph would say that he dominated a 14 field horse in a ballsy performance at Blue Grass and ran it with a good stalk pace with a phenomenal finish. He wins and I take my winnings and will be popping bottles at 40/40 for Mayweather.
Blue Grass Win
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9viKDfdYFA