2009 Murph Derby Analysis:
editor's note: as of right now there are scheduled thunderstorms all day so i am making these picks assuming the track will be a mud bath
And here is what we have all been waiting for!!! cant stress the importance enough of the track conditions on saturday, going to watch a few races at the track to see how its riding, but good god we get some good shots of some sloppiness in the infield, and if i win i am going bring the rain later in the night. It's always important to note that i am betting to buy a house in malibu not brag that i cashed a ticket, that being said, on to the picks!!!
4 heavy favorites all odds 5-1 or worse, rest of field has odds at 15-1 or better, with the track going to be the way it is i am going after the 10 cent super fecta with none of the top 4 favorites in it and pulling out some of the pretenders that will not be mentioned again (atomic rain, mine that bird, flying private, west side bernie, and mr hot stuff aka dehart)... and a more to come
4 favorites:
i want revenge: very impressive at the wood memorial (weak field), came off a bump and out of the crowd with great speed take it at the end, fastest horse in the derby and had his best speed rating on dirt after coming out west on polytrack (see pioneerof the nile). he is going to be ridden by 20 year old joe talamo, star of the hit tv show jockey's (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJEth7EebeU) on animal planet. he has been my favorite up until today and hes going to off as the favorite, its going to be raining, and he has a very young inexperienced jockey riding him and he hasnt trained well all week, if the track holds up i probably will play him in an exotic but i dont see that happening
the wood memorial race
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUUdR0fXCNo
frisean fire: has won 3 races in a row, larry jones last two horses have placed in derby, 7 week layoff, great blood lines, very trendy pick right now. im not going to be touching him because he sits on the inside of papa clem, then join the dance and regal ransom are 2&3 down respectedly and i fully expect 2 of those horses to jump the gate and set the early pace and its goign to be hard for FF to hold back and not get caught up in that (will be wearing blinkers), plus he hasnt raced in a G1 so his 3 victories havent been against the best of the best
Dunikirk: ran second in florida derby to quality road, had a great turn around the corner and positioned himself well but that was the work of jockey gomez, showed he had some speed to do so but tired at the end, and it wasn't my fault that the track was in those conditions (3:18 mark on linke below). Won previous 2 races but thats only 3 races and folks he's no curlin and even curlin couldnt do that, going to be riden by prado but was passed over by gomez, his odds are being placed on potential but i just don't see it
florida derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUi3EBRN8BA
pioneer of the nile: first race on real dirt, but has trained very well this week, and has f*ck%d $hit up out in Cali on the polytrack this year, won 4 races in a row including 2 victories over i want revenge, and has also beat derby participants papa clem and chocolate candy, all races were G1's or 2's. gomez (3rd in earnings this year in the money 55%) had the opportunity to ride dunkirk but choose PON instead, i think gomez knows a thing or two more then this degenerate. im going big with PON and then going to find some odds in the rest of the field.
beats i want revenge and chocolate candy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_YNwRPoEOY&feature=PlayList&p=4D3EA85CBA33FD4B&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=4
santa anita
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXMN2wV6KzY
the mudders
chocolate candy: had got rondo'd by pioneerof the nile all year long but i like his post at 11 better, he has the best bloodlines for mud by far and is being ridden by smith who won with giacamo in the mud as well, he's a closer so the extra furlong is going to play well to his favor, if his odds get better than 20-1 i am going to be very excited
papa clem: another west coast horse that PON beat up on out west that came east and had great success, being ridden by baranjo who is 2nd in earnings this year and 58% in the money, if he can keep big papi at bay out of the gate and let the pace be set but join the dance and regal ransom he could make something happen
join the dance: has raced on mud before at churchill and came in second, like the post at 9, and has one of better sire mud bloodlines but i see him setting pace and not being able to finish
advice; have a stat that puts him at 103 mud speed but i cant find anything else on that, but if i decide to go with a mud exacta he will be in it and as hes on the inside i am hoping to get him in my super as well, pedigree suggests nothing special, dont ask on this one just a gut bet i think
the rest
musket man: won the illinois and the tampa from the outside, he runs well in crowds and is not sprinting this week as he is already accustomed to dirt and coming out of post 2 with 20-1 odds if you arent hearing caaaaa chinggggggg then get your ears checked
hold me back: good pedigree, and has been training well on the dirt this week, hasnt raced well on dirt, traditional polytrack. not sure if i want to research this horse as i dont see much happening
regal ransom: not a big fran of foreign horses and that hurt me last year, will it bite me again, i hope not
And the survey says.......
win: pioneerof nile
place: musket man
show: chocolate candy
i aint goign to bull$hit you hear, i dont think you will find that ticket elsewhere, friesaean fire, dunkirk, and i want revenge are great horses, im just looking for some odds, and chocolate candy, musket man, and papa clem i think are your best bets.
hope this helps and if for some reason it doesnt rain on saturday, this is all going out the window and will probably carry a more traditional ticket keeping musket man for the odds but will explore regal ransom, general quarters, and maybe maybe desert party
im now ready for some juleps
editor's note: as of right now there are scheduled thunderstorms all day so i am making these picks assuming the track will be a mud bath
And here is what we have all been waiting for!!! cant stress the importance enough of the track conditions on saturday, going to watch a few races at the track to see how its riding, but good god we get some good shots of some sloppiness in the infield, and if i win i am going bring the rain later in the night. It's always important to note that i am betting to buy a house in malibu not brag that i cashed a ticket, that being said, on to the picks!!!
4 heavy favorites all odds 5-1 or worse, rest of field has odds at 15-1 or better, with the track going to be the way it is i am going after the 10 cent super fecta with none of the top 4 favorites in it and pulling out some of the pretenders that will not be mentioned again (atomic rain, mine that bird, flying private, west side bernie, and mr hot stuff aka dehart)... and a more to come
4 favorites:
i want revenge: very impressive at the wood memorial (weak field), came off a bump and out of the crowd with great speed take it at the end, fastest horse in the derby and had his best speed rating on dirt after coming out west on polytrack (see pioneerof the nile). he is going to be ridden by 20 year old joe talamo, star of the hit tv show jockey's (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJEth7EebeU) on animal planet. he has been my favorite up until today and hes going to off as the favorite, its going to be raining, and he has a very young inexperienced jockey riding him and he hasnt trained well all week, if the track holds up i probably will play him in an exotic but i dont see that happening
the wood memorial race
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUUdR0fXCNo
frisean fire: has won 3 races in a row, larry jones last two horses have placed in derby, 7 week layoff, great blood lines, very trendy pick right now. im not going to be touching him because he sits on the inside of papa clem, then join the dance and regal ransom are 2&3 down respectedly and i fully expect 2 of those horses to jump the gate and set the early pace and its goign to be hard for FF to hold back and not get caught up in that (will be wearing blinkers), plus he hasnt raced in a G1 so his 3 victories havent been against the best of the best
Dunikirk: ran second in florida derby to quality road, had a great turn around the corner and positioned himself well but that was the work of jockey gomez, showed he had some speed to do so but tired at the end, and it wasn't my fault that the track was in those conditions (3:18 mark on linke below). Won previous 2 races but thats only 3 races and folks he's no curlin and even curlin couldnt do that, going to be riden by prado but was passed over by gomez, his odds are being placed on potential but i just don't see it
florida derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUi3EBRN8BA
pioneer of the nile: first race on real dirt, but has trained very well this week, and has f*ck%d $hit up out in Cali on the polytrack this year, won 4 races in a row including 2 victories over i want revenge, and has also beat derby participants papa clem and chocolate candy, all races were G1's or 2's. gomez (3rd in earnings this year in the money 55%) had the opportunity to ride dunkirk but choose PON instead, i think gomez knows a thing or two more then this degenerate. im going big with PON and then going to find some odds in the rest of the field.
beats i want revenge and chocolate candy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_YNwRPoEOY&feature=PlayList&p=4D3EA85CBA33FD4B&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=4
santa anita
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXMN2wV6KzY
the mudders
chocolate candy: had got rondo'd by pioneerof the nile all year long but i like his post at 11 better, he has the best bloodlines for mud by far and is being ridden by smith who won with giacamo in the mud as well, he's a closer so the extra furlong is going to play well to his favor, if his odds get better than 20-1 i am going to be very excited
papa clem: another west coast horse that PON beat up on out west that came east and had great success, being ridden by baranjo who is 2nd in earnings this year and 58% in the money, if he can keep big papi at bay out of the gate and let the pace be set but join the dance and regal ransom he could make something happen
join the dance: has raced on mud before at churchill and came in second, like the post at 9, and has one of better sire mud bloodlines but i see him setting pace and not being able to finish
advice; have a stat that puts him at 103 mud speed but i cant find anything else on that, but if i decide to go with a mud exacta he will be in it and as hes on the inside i am hoping to get him in my super as well, pedigree suggests nothing special, dont ask on this one just a gut bet i think
the rest
musket man: won the illinois and the tampa from the outside, he runs well in crowds and is not sprinting this week as he is already accustomed to dirt and coming out of post 2 with 20-1 odds if you arent hearing caaaaa chinggggggg then get your ears checked
hold me back: good pedigree, and has been training well on the dirt this week, hasnt raced well on dirt, traditional polytrack. not sure if i want to research this horse as i dont see much happening
regal ransom: not a big fran of foreign horses and that hurt me last year, will it bite me again, i hope not
And the survey says.......
win: pioneerof nile
place: musket man
show: chocolate candy
i aint goign to bull$hit you hear, i dont think you will find that ticket elsewhere, friesaean fire, dunkirk, and i want revenge are great horses, im just looking for some odds, and chocolate candy, musket man, and papa clem i think are your best bets.
hope this helps and if for some reason it doesnt rain on saturday, this is all going out the window and will probably carry a more traditional ticket keeping musket man for the odds but will explore regal ransom, general quarters, and maybe maybe desert party
im now ready for some juleps