2024 Kentucky Derby
Sorry for the delay in the writeup this year (not really). We have been working on some BIGGG THINGS. MurphDerby will be officially launching the MurphDerby Hall of Fame. Boom. You're welcome.
The inaugural inductees represent 3 of the finest horses who MurphDerby bet (responsibly) on and made Cheddar. Please stand up and give a huge round of applause or a wolf howl if you are part of the Wolf Pack to (in no order):
Stealing a few stats from my good friend and fellow amateur handicapper – Brian Tracy.
Weather. Weather. Weather. Always a factor as it defines the track. Currently rain sits at 20-30% chance of rain. With all the technology that exists I have negative % understanding how this isn't more binary. The weather nerds are definitely the bottom of the nerd totem pole. Top of the totem pole - developers (unless you live in Denver than you are fckn lying scumbag - you know you are)
The trip - I have no clue how the field will spread. The speed is all over.. If Fierceness gets a good a trip and goes off at 4-1. Thats good $$$.
Lets dance.
Throw Aways
West Saratoga - Everyone knows I’m East ‘Toga ‘til I die
Forever Young – MurphDerby will live forever
Society Man – A+ name for an F- horse
Encino – Like any Pauly Shore movie he got scratched and won’t be green lit for Derby Day. On serious note Brad Cox (trainer) would have had 3 horses. Cox is a good trainer – does it the right way – the non-Baffert way. The MurphDerby read is that he is seeing great stuff from his other 2 so will save Encino Man and let him star in Bio Dome.
Mystik Dan - I prefer Mystic
Epic Ride - The good 'ol days fellas. Am I right?
Resillence - Respect Bill Mott. This aint toga and C- for originality of name.
Pretenders
Domestic Product - aka America First – It the Chad Brown & Irad Ortiz duo. If this was Saratoga on the turf – talk to me. It’s not and I think Irad Ortiz had to be higher than MurpHart’s 2002 Hampton Beach tour because I haven’t seen a worse trip than that since DeHart in 2001.
Dornoch - I post.. Ill say less
Sierra Leone - I just don't see Chad Brown (trainer winning this). Diamonds are forever but this horse aint.
I am skipping a bunch because I am pressed for time.
Contenders
Largest list of contenders ever in the MurphDerby write up... Take that as you will.
Stronghold - hes at 30:1 right now. Hammer him place / show. HAMMER.
Fierceness - best hors, Pletcher + Velazquez is the equivalent to Murphy & Mack in the TriTown golden eras. He has the two best Beyer speed figures. He had a record performance in the Florida Derby. He has the pedigree. He has a Hall of Fame trainer (Todd Pletcher) and Hall of Fame jockey (John Velasquez).
Grand Mo First - I love Uncle Mo and have committed to betting the Mo long shots. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt
Catching Freedom - Catching Freedom, do you catch it like a cold or chicken. I can catch a cold I can't catch a chicken. Brad Cox is A+ trainer. F Prat on the saddle. It could work.
The Picks......
Im playing odds for place show w the guys above and then going to play a few exactas one w Fierceness on top and one without.
1) Stronghold
2) Fierceness
3) Catching Freedom
The inaugural inductees represent 3 of the finest horses who MurphDerby bet (responsibly) on and made Cheddar. Please stand up and give a huge round of applause or a wolf howl if you are part of the Wolf Pack to (in no order):
- Uncle Mo - if you know me, then you know there is no order. Uncle Mo ride or die. I hope I come back in my second life as Mare and Uncle Mo takes me on a date. Like my friend Bill Murphy (broken ankle freshman year of college) they will forever talk about the WHAT IF he didn't get hurt. Could have been all time great.
- Justify - I predicted the three crown before May What more to say. We never saw him again after Belmont. I hate he didn't run Travers and will always wonder was he this good or was as MurphDerby called it - Bafferts Special Juice. I love that this was the beginning of the end for Bobby Baffert. Special horse that cashed checks.
- Gun Runner - see Pegasus 2018 aka MurphDerby's bachelor party. We left no bridge undiscovered. We also hit the tri at the Whit w him. All time MurphDerby winningest horse. He was a gamer. If Kobe and Bird took their DNA and created a horse - Gun Runner.
Stealing a few stats from my good friend and fellow amateur handicapper – Brian Tracy.
- 11 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners have broken from gate 13 or higher. 12 of those outsiders were the betting favorite when loading the gate.
- The OG MurphDerby'ites know we hate chalk. We make a big deal about how kids will never know rotary phones, classified ads, 2 genders, but I never hear a peep about cleaning chalk erasers. I have to imagine that's that as extinct FOE's little title chances?
- 10 of the last 12 Derby winners (excluding Country House) won their prior race and most of those colts also had a perfect record as a 3yo.
- F Country House - that was kick in the man's private part. For the first time ever I'll give you MurphDerby's favorite way to find good odds - horses that have been improving over last 3-4 races but got a bad trip / bumped gate / etc last race so they didn't win. Will we find that this year? Keep reading.
Weather. Weather. Weather. Always a factor as it defines the track. Currently rain sits at 20-30% chance of rain. With all the technology that exists I have negative % understanding how this isn't more binary. The weather nerds are definitely the bottom of the nerd totem pole. Top of the totem pole - developers (unless you live in Denver than you are fckn lying scumbag - you know you are)
The trip - I have no clue how the field will spread. The speed is all over.. If Fierceness gets a good a trip and goes off at 4-1. Thats good $$$.
Lets dance.
Throw Aways
West Saratoga - Everyone knows I’m East ‘Toga ‘til I die
Forever Young – MurphDerby will live forever
Society Man – A+ name for an F- horse
Encino – Like any Pauly Shore movie he got scratched and won’t be green lit for Derby Day. On serious note Brad Cox (trainer) would have had 3 horses. Cox is a good trainer – does it the right way – the non-Baffert way. The MurphDerby read is that he is seeing great stuff from his other 2 so will save Encino Man and let him star in Bio Dome.
Mystik Dan - I prefer Mystic
Epic Ride - The good 'ol days fellas. Am I right?
Resillence - Respect Bill Mott. This aint toga and C- for originality of name.
Pretenders
Domestic Product - aka America First – It the Chad Brown & Irad Ortiz duo. If this was Saratoga on the turf – talk to me. It’s not and I think Irad Ortiz had to be higher than MurpHart’s 2002 Hampton Beach tour because I haven’t seen a worse trip than that since DeHart in 2001.
Dornoch - I post.. Ill say less
Sierra Leone - I just don't see Chad Brown (trainer winning this). Diamonds are forever but this horse aint.
I am skipping a bunch because I am pressed for time.
Contenders
Largest list of contenders ever in the MurphDerby write up... Take that as you will.
Stronghold - hes at 30:1 right now. Hammer him place / show. HAMMER.
Fierceness - best hors, Pletcher + Velazquez is the equivalent to Murphy & Mack in the TriTown golden eras. He has the two best Beyer speed figures. He had a record performance in the Florida Derby. He has the pedigree. He has a Hall of Fame trainer (Todd Pletcher) and Hall of Fame jockey (John Velasquez).
Grand Mo First - I love Uncle Mo and have committed to betting the Mo long shots. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt
Catching Freedom - Catching Freedom, do you catch it like a cold or chicken. I can catch a cold I can't catch a chicken. Brad Cox is A+ trainer. F Prat on the saddle. It could work.
The Picks......
Im playing odds for place show w the guys above and then going to play a few exactas one w Fierceness on top and one without.
1) Stronghold
2) Fierceness
3) Catching Freedom